Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d171ea38ac50ebbe1b575f876950696eac07852ad29b926d793175744c83463
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,390
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,952
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,390 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 7,938$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.68 | 3,411 | 31.1%1,062 W · 2,349 L | -37.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8c…273fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,391$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 15c | 1,273$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.79 | 912 | 28.9%264 W · 648 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 19c | 1,231$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.99 | 292 | 30.5%89 W · 203 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 5c | 844.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 19c | 552.59$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.37 | 483 | 39.5%191 W · 292 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 484$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.79 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 470.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 16c | 416.41$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.74 | 1,440 | 27.8%400 W · 1,040 L | +75.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 13c | 371.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 327 | 37.9%124 W · 203 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 9c | 335$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 274 | 28.5%78 W · 196 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x340c…f130backed Yes | 23c | 301.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.12 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 17c | 252.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 398 | 30.4%121 W · 277 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ead…0b4dbacked Yes | 8c | 237.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 77c | 222.3$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafc3…33e8backed Yes | 8c | 220.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 203.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,083 | 65.6%710 W · 373 L | -16.5wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 10c | 184.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 19c | 180.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 10c | 173.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 75c | 165.53$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 165.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 77c | 165$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes | 24c | 152$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed No | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 235 | 31.1%73 W · 162 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 23c | 149.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 792 | 40.9%324 W · 468 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 68c | 142.86$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.07 | 1,611 | 61.8%995 W · 616 L | +17.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 12c | 135.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…0cc4backed Yes | 11c | 134.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5331…3672backed No | 73c | 134.37$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 79c | 124.97$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…1fafbacked Yes | 15c | 123.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 10c | 116.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 5,542 | 47.8%2,649 W · 2,893 L | +81.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 14c | 113.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 12c | 112.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b42…14f4backed Yes | 14c | 109.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…82bdbacked Yes | 10c | 107.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,301 | 32.9%428 W · 873 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 79c | 98.1$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 20c | 96.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 651 | 60.4%393 W · 258 L | +92.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…acd3backed Yes | 21c | 95.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 90.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Yes | 23c | 87.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 4,616 | 58.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L | -114.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…2bfcbacked Yes | 18c | 82.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6c…4fc3backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…7cacbacked Yes | 17c | 71.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 21c | 70.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,412 | 65.3%922 W · 490 L | +60.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 66.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 31c | 62.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 179 | 36.3%65 W · 114 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa98c…a75ebacked Yes | 18c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 22c | 59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked Yes | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 30c | 49.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…cc2cbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 68 | 94.1%64 W · 4 L | +12.7wins | +0.19per pick | 75cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 71c | 33.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 80c | 31.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 3,620 | 53.2%1,925 W · 1,695 L | +81.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 179 | 52%93 W · 86 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 77c | 26.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 80c | 26.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…73a4backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 80c | 18.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 3,190 | 53.7%1,712 W · 1,478 L | -98.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa37a…bc60backed No | 69c | 18.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 78c | 18.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 2,237 | 49.3%1,102 W · 1,135 L | -10.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.