Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50d75ef9fb1e583748b8fd7a06e0acfd7dca80e3d5bddc73dc1ab072b8ca2d8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,035
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 17,684$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.25 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 0c | 5,239$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 28c | 1,220$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.84 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 19c | 920.7$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.95 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 28c | 907.97$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.37 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 539$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.28 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 76c | 537.07$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.74 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 503.7$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.84 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…559fbacked Yes | 32c | 400.27$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.09 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 382.62$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x340c…f130backed Yes | 27c | 313$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.38 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 28c | 299.8$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.26 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 276.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.25 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 267.01$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.91 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 261.38$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 24c | 250$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 11c | 245.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 71c | 243.25$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.19 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 70c | 239.6$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.88 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 33c | 200.62$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.65 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 7c | 198.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 192.3$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 189.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.24 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 79c | 186.22$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.88 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 73c | 165$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 163.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 37c | 157.21$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.17 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 66c | 147.08$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.34 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 80c | 143.86$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 25c | 130$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 75c | 129.29$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 28c | 124.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 28c | 121.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…2bfcbacked Yes | 25c | 118.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 75c | 117$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Yes | 26c | 113.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 14c | 113$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 75c | 110.91$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 110.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 72c | 110.77$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 108.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes | 22c | 107.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 23c | 101.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 79c | 100.34$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 16c | 98.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 76c | 94.37$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed Yes | 27c | 93.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 88.51$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 83.71$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 29c | 82.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 23c | 81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…1fafbacked Yes | 23c | 72.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked No | 79c | 71$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 69.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6c…4fc3backed Yes | 31c | 63.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 26c | 62.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…acd3backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa98c…a75ebacked Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed Yes | 31c | 57.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 24c | 55.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 23c | 50.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 25c | 50.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…ec8ebacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…c67fbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98df…7870backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 29c | 49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 22c | 48.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a68…13f0backed Yes | 30c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 75c | 37.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 34.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 77c | 33.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 77c | 33.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 77c | 33.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 58c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b26…f3efbacked No | 75c | 28.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d3e9backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 18.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 18.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 73c | 15.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.