Middle East · resolved market
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b020cdcefd9176f3390b2634a43cb6b6317739fa8ab499f0acddb438e3be8a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,180
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,180 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4e9…5fecbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…6677backed No | 3c | 3,950$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.7 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +141.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…cfb7backed No | 4c | 3,100$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.6 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +193.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked No | 4c | 2,500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.1 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d84…2c67backed No | 3c | 2,333$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 1c | 2,024$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 3c | 1,260$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…ac4cbacked No | 43c | 1,222$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.57 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 18c | 1,211$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…6d54backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…6834backed Yes | 45c | 800.26$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.94 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +57%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 15c | 791.43$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.58 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 55c | 742.56$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.81 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed Yes | 57c | 693$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.22 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcae4…ccecbacked Yes | 57c | 665$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.29 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 2c | 653.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed No | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +5.9wins | +0.14per pick | 16cpaid | +107.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +16.4wins | +0.32per pick | 21cpaid | +138.8%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x4447…b294backed No | 14c | 360$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 62c | 320.76$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.61 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f58…62a5backed No | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 8c | 300.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca9b…bebebacked No | 7c | 273.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 6c | 253.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 9c | 224.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 113 | 20.4%23 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc038…2c07backed Yes | 52c | 193.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.8 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…424cbacked No | 56c | 193.59$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.34 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x223b…85dfbacked Yes | 44c | 190$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.4 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +36%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 180.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed No | 49c | 179.39$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.2 | 169 | 61.5%104 W · 65 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 8c | 172.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc986…875dbacked Yes | 72c | 158.8$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +205.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed No | 65c | 154.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 10c | 146.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ef…63b4backed Yes | 73c | 137.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked No | 43c | 136$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.94 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 10c | 124.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf00d…a887backed Yes | 61c | 115.85$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1932…4e5abacked Yes | 47c | 106.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.31 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8e…8e0dbacked No | 65c | 96$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4988…e0e6backed Yes | 59c | 92$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa908…203cbacked No | 61c | 81.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a77…4fcfbacked Yes | 50c | 76.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.94 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2d…4123backed Yes | 50c | 71.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x268b…4890backed Yes | 71c | 70.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1892…1b4cbacked Yes | 75c | 67.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 60c | 56.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 68 | 72.1%49 W · 19 L | +10.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 26c | 54.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 52c | 53.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed No | 56c | 48.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec3…e98dbacked No | 42c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…d63fbacked No | 40c | 44.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 28c | 42.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa37a…bc60backed No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +197.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 55c | 35.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 39c | 31.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 118 | 18.6%22 W · 96 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51a2…051bbacked Yes | 51c | 29.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed Yes | 50c | 21.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d82…3531backed No | 57c | 21.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?this page
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.