TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 7, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$38,134
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$36,266

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,134 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d2a…2e2bbacked No1c5,005$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.140%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99ba…6391backed No1c2,081$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8810321.4%22 W · 81 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-51.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No3c1,338$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.654769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f96…5cb2backed No51c207.06$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00cf…f54fbacked No51c206.52$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71a8…fea6backed No51c206.49$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a6c…a200backed No51c205.54$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52d1…553dbacked No51c205.49$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ae6…b2ccbacked No51c203.92$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0937…99dfbacked No51c203.74$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb98…be21backed No51c203.01$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6453…9a7dbacked No51c202.78$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2eb7…f452backed No51c202.56$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.3120%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e70…740dbacked No51c202.38$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce04…f72ebacked No51c201.3$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x914f…e477backed No51c199.99$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ce1…4304backed No51c199.93$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffde…2838backed No51c199.72$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.8620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x78d6…116abacked No51c199.63$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb624…e0fabacked No51c199.51$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x590e…b786backed No51c199.33$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67b1…65bfbacked No51c199.29$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b6…e145backed No51c198.79$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a71…01d3backed No51c198.54$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b2f…fcdcbacked No51c198.5$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc5…f09fbacked No51c198.37$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8f8…3870backed No51c198.18$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43a4…821dbacked No51c198.08$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4c6…d9c3backed No51c198.05$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95f5…ef9ebacked No51c197.71$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e5d…cb42backed No51c197.55$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e09…0fc3backed No51c197.5$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5c8…872bbacked No51c197.34$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe14c…0fadbacked No51c197.25$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0836…3057backed No51c196.96$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cbf…7007backed No51c196.7$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.3220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4bf…85e6backed No51c196.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x679f…f9e0backed No51c196.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6328…f86ebacked No51c196.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36a6…0f5bbacked No51c196.2$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72a8…d917backed No51c196$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x907c…dd5fbacked No51c195.95$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d31…adbfbacked No50c195.72$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaad0…2980backed No51c195.69$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a65…88e5backed No50c195.51$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x351f…ccb4backed No51c195.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.720%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0029…80ecbacked No51c195.4$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3b3…2923backed No51c195.35$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6320%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f60…3ab8backed No50c195.32$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0843…d4c8backed No51c195.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3b3…0592backed No50c195.31$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1231…9019backed No50c195.31$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89d6…6f37backed No50c195.23$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f79…304fbacked No51c195.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c74…b314backed No51c195.04$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3227…6df7backed No50c195.02$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b4a…3b8cbacked No51c194.98$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4420%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaccb…5b2ebacked No50c194.95$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b13…fc15backed No51c194.93$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4120%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xde23…6f34backed No51c194.88$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcefc…347dbacked No51c194.72$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bfd…f70ebacked No51c194.7$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1a0…77bdbacked No50c194.68$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b06…3ef9backed No50c194.57$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.2920%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf9b…1003backed No51c194.28$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6fa…3f99backed No51c194.22$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70c8…6582backed No51c194.05$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d7a…4f82backed No51c193.7$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e0b…49f2backed No51c193.54$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf7a…f3d6backed No51c193.5$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.6920%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa299…6817backed No51c193.4$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e84…0004backed No51c193.34$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8611…da80backed No51c193.23$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.5520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9999…f8c7backed No51c192.99$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ad0…d55cbacked No51c192.99$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e9…9107backed No51c192.58$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d78…6ce9backed No51c192.52$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7cd…5c16backed No51c192.46$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e82…14bcbacked No51c192.05$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc886…0288backed No51c191.78$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.8120%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x732b…0d38backed No51c191.71$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c7a…13f0backed No51c191.62$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbc9…72f3backed No51c191.4$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe302…ec08backed No51c191.3$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b9f…6d55backed No51c191.14$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c20…d23dbacked No51c190.47$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1420%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5493…af51backed No51c190.25$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53eb…ccecbacked No51c190.19$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb953…9f58backed No51c190.02$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6267…7b54backed No51c189.72$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b40…60dcbacked No51c189.66$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6322…85a3backed No51c189.49$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaeee…c51bbacked No51c189.18$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0aef…de78backed No51c189.04$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd84…2f5dbacked No51c188.35$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.0620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8748…a5cbbacked No51c188.2$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82d6…a834backed No51c187.55$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85ca…76f2backed No51c187.12$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9879…0a36backed No51c186.56$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9dc…6a9fbacked No51c186.31$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.