Middle East · resolved market
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69766759c32fe5e3216cb78af474d41aad7f0824fabbafaf856c0bd594dee1b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d2a…2e2bbacked No | 1c | 5,005$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 1c | 2,081$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 3c | 1,338$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f96…5cb2backed No | 51c | 207.06$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…f54fbacked No | 51c | 206.52$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71a8…fea6backed No | 51c | 206.49$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6c…a200backed No | 51c | 205.54$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d1…553dbacked No | 51c | 205.49$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae6…b2ccbacked No | 51c | 203.92$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0937…99dfbacked No | 51c | 203.74$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb98…be21backed No | 51c | 203.01$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6453…9a7dbacked No | 51c | 202.78$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb7…f452backed No | 51c | 202.56$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e70…740dbacked No | 51c | 202.38$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce04…f72ebacked No | 51c | 201.3$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914f…e477backed No | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce1…4304backed No | 51c | 199.93$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…2838backed No | 51c | 199.72$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78d6…116abacked No | 51c | 199.63$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb624…e0fabacked No | 51c | 199.51$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…b786backed No | 51c | 199.33$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…65bfbacked No | 51c | 199.29$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b6…e145backed No | 51c | 198.79$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a71…01d3backed No | 51c | 198.54$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2f…fcdcbacked No | 51c | 198.5$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc5…f09fbacked No | 51c | 198.37$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…3870backed No | 51c | 198.18$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a4…821dbacked No | 51c | 198.08$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c6…d9c3backed No | 51c | 198.05$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…ef9ebacked No | 51c | 197.71$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5d…cb42backed No | 51c | 197.55$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e09…0fc3backed No | 51c | 197.5$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c8…872bbacked No | 51c | 197.34$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe14c…0fadbacked No | 51c | 197.25$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0836…3057backed No | 51c | 196.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbf…7007backed No | 51c | 196.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bf…85e6backed No | 51c | 196.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x679f…f9e0backed No | 51c | 196.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6328…f86ebacked No | 51c | 196.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…0f5bbacked No | 51c | 196.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a8…d917backed No | 51c | 196$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…dd5fbacked No | 51c | 195.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d31…adbfbacked No | 50c | 195.72$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad0…2980backed No | 51c | 195.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a65…88e5backed No | 50c | 195.51$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x351f…ccb4backed No | 51c | 195.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0029…80ecbacked No | 51c | 195.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b3…2923backed No | 51c | 195.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f60…3ab8backed No | 50c | 195.32$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0843…d4c8backed No | 51c | 195.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b3…0592backed No | 50c | 195.31$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1231…9019backed No | 50c | 195.31$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89d6…6f37backed No | 50c | 195.23$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f79…304fbacked No | 51c | 195.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c74…b314backed No | 51c | 195.04$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3227…6df7backed No | 50c | 195.02$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…3b8cbacked No | 51c | 194.98$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaccb…5b2ebacked No | 50c | 194.95$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b13…fc15backed No | 51c | 194.93$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde23…6f34backed No | 51c | 194.88$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcefc…347dbacked No | 51c | 194.72$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfd…f70ebacked No | 51c | 194.7$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a0…77bdbacked No | 50c | 194.68$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b06…3ef9backed No | 50c | 194.57$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9b…1003backed No | 51c | 194.28$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…3f99backed No | 51c | 194.22$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c8…6582backed No | 51c | 194.05$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7a…4f82backed No | 51c | 193.7$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0b…49f2backed No | 51c | 193.54$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf7a…f3d6backed No | 51c | 193.5$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa299…6817backed No | 51c | 193.4$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e84…0004backed No | 51c | 193.34$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8611…da80backed No | 51c | 193.23$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9999…f8c7backed No | 51c | 192.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad0…d55cbacked No | 51c | 192.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e9…9107backed No | 51c | 192.58$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d78…6ce9backed No | 51c | 192.52$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7cd…5c16backed No | 51c | 192.46$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…14bcbacked No | 51c | 192.05$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc886…0288backed No | 51c | 191.78$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x732b…0d38backed No | 51c | 191.71$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7a…13f0backed No | 51c | 191.62$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc9…72f3backed No | 51c | 191.4$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe302…ec08backed No | 51c | 191.3$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9f…6d55backed No | 51c | 191.14$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c20…d23dbacked No | 51c | 190.47$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5493…af51backed No | 51c | 190.25$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…ccecbacked No | 51c | 190.19$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb953…9f58backed No | 51c | 190.02$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6267…7b54backed No | 51c | 189.72$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…60dcbacked No | 51c | 189.66$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6322…85a3backed No | 51c | 189.49$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeee…c51bbacked No | 51c | 189.18$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aef…de78backed No | 51c | 189.04$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…2f5dbacked No | 51c | 188.35$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8748…a5cbbacked No | 51c | 188.2$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82d6…a834backed No | 51c | 187.55$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ca…76f2backed No | 51c | 187.12$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9879…0a36backed No | 51c | 186.56$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dc…6a9fbacked No | 51c | 186.31$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 7, 2026?this page
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.