Middle East · resolved market
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 6, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcf9122c3e430a172bcdaa0a0a02154d0ff64f2273e2a0019790f46410cc2228
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5664…f163backed No | 43c | 16,668$7,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,226.17 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 0c | 7,099$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b3…b017backed Yes | 57c | 3,680$2,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,582.62 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.6wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 66c | 3,623$2,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…7747backed No | 51c | 3,162$1,627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,627 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 27c | 3,024$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.57 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…b919backed Yes | 64c | 2,715$1,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.75 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3d…ecfebacked Yes | 57c | 2,537$1,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,084.49 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0796…8264backed Yes | 66c | 2,259$1,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.24 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 1c | 2,025$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed Yes | 45c | 1,605$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.56 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb30…6498backed Yes | 66c | 1,225$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.11 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…0a00backed No | 20c | 1,185$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.03 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 1,154$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 2c | 1,124$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 49c | 1,116$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.14 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…ecb4backed Yes | 69c | 1,041$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.46 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 35c | 1,023$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.06 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 14c | 1,005$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.78 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb337…39a5backed No | 48c | 1,000$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56bf…5c19backed Yes | 63c | 921.32$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.3 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead6…911fbacked No | 19c | 897$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3684…9669backed No | 19c | 891$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.96 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 13c | 888.49$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.86 | 109 | 13.8%15 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…e62fbacked No | 19c | 858$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.59 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 761.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x396b…1759backed No | 6c | 745.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…ba87backed No | 52c | 693.91$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.66 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 46c | 682.96$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.74 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…454fbacked Yes | 49c | 671.39$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.9 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8c…2255backed No | 7c | 666.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +1,011.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b6…3a92backed Yes | 58c | 662$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.69 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +13.0wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 4c | 643.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb254…aa58backed Yes | 70c | 569.46$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.58 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 67cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 6c | 557.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bd…f03ebacked No | 42c | 548.92$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.68 | 123 | 28.5%35 W · 88 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa5…2380backed No | 55c | 547$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.49 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +122.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed No | 55c | 541$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.17 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 10c | 539.01$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked No | 55c | 534.05$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.11 | 153 | 38.6%59 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e08…7e2ebacked No | 55c | 517$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f7…42a9backed No | 23c | 514.93$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 77c | 514.06$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.33 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 23c | 500.47$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.24 | 174 | 49.4%86 W · 88 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d3…0e0fbacked No | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf47f…fc3dbacked No | 20c | 500$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +660.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 50c | 471.5$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.12 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 24c | 467.49$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.69 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 25c | 455.7$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.54 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 13c | 434$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.57 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 24c | 405.76$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.7 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +10.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 43c | 401.54$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.63 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd4…194bbacked No | 46c | 400$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.85 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 3c | 397.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3b…5475backed No | 41c | 350.77$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.46 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d6…9357backed Yes | 69c | 321.43$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb2…a30cbacked No | 16c | 320.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x756e…fe0fbacked Yes | 63c | 316.8$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.8 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a38…16a5backed Yes | 63c | 304.54$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.54 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca16…f878backed No | 37c | 297.29$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.11 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8e…8e0dbacked No | 15c | 274.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 271.51$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 6c | 255$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…bffcbacked No | 16c | 239.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 45c | 222$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.88 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…3e73backed No | 25c | 220.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd166…666ebacked No | 49c | 201.7$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 61c | 192.77$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.42 | 72 | 68.1%49 W · 23 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf41b…2771backed Yes | 52c | 192.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.67 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…f113backed Yes | 59c | 188.38$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.04 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c04…97bdbacked No | 59c | 169.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 36c | 168.88$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.7 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 15c | 166.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 10c | 160.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf12…cbd9backed No | 22c | 151.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed No | 53c | 150$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.9 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…6430backed No | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x903d…0fdfbacked No | 20c | 147.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38fe…4c18backed Yes | 47c | 145.78$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.24 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b7…2d35backed Yes | 56c | 144.24$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.72 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04af…9a07backed No | 20c | 135.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 28c | 129.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked No | 10c | 125.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 26c | 123.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5935…c0e1backed No | 18c | 114.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 30c | 113.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +41.8wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 78+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 26c | 110.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 21c | 107.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 13c | 106.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0548…66a0backed No | 29c | 103.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…4aeebacked No | 37c | 93.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba86…b2acbacked Yes | 59c | 93.2$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x525f…b707backed Yes | 49c | 91.94$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.94 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fab…f934backed Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +149.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…a091backed No | 55c | 84.06$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.38 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…eda0backed Yes | 64c | 80.89$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x165a…ee8ebacked Yes | 72c | 77.08$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 48c | 74.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 18c | 74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.68 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 26c | 68.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 6, 2026?this page
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.