Middle East · resolved market
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbbb5f84c4bb5a68bc62c0d3c81cf8e24fce6f920a048d2934bbdccb168e9a28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,791
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,791 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 1c | 2,111$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6970…ef65backed No | 12c | 1,549$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d82…3531backed No | 2c | 1,050$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…60c2backed No | 7c | 1,008$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.08 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 3c | 1,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 883.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 2c | 762.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed No | 8c | 706.32$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.46 | 98 | 25.5%25 W · 73 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 61c | 566.68$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 562.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…6834backed Yes | 39c | 543.99$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.19 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +57%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 11c | 500$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 6c | 490.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +10.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 5c | 450.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 118 | 18.6%22 W · 96 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 4c | 409.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d7…f795backed Yes | 79c | 407.04$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.04 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 13c | 380.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked No | 12c | 340$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 153 | 38.6%59 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf00d…a887backed Yes | 56c | 325.54$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.73 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x396b…1759backed No | 13c | 264.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3329…2f5cbacked No | 10c | 239.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 67 | 7.5%5 W · 62 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 75c | 235.94$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.96 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 10c | 234.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed No | 17c | 230$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe87f…7822backed Yes | 73c | 218.54$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.54 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 10c | 209.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…ea5dbacked No | 15c | 204.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 74c | 184.76$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.78 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 9c | 179.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 14c | 176.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…0540backed No | 15c | 168.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 78 | 37.2%29 W · 49 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 69c | 139.33$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.69 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 10c | 126.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…5d0dbacked No | 8c | 124.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…3c2dbacked No | 79c | 115.36$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.79 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 16c | 104.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…d63fbacked Yes | 55c | 101.36$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 98.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe100…2388backed No | 20c | 93.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 13c | 87.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a57…1f06backed Yes | 80c | 67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 63c | 52.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x339b…8f20backed Yes | 40c | 49.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 49c | 49.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +41.8wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 78+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 61c | 47.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 62c | 46.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 123 | 62.6%77 W · 46 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9725…46d0backed No | 49c | 43.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde10…faf2backed Yes | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8e…71f5backed Yes | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5b…1a6dbacked No | 62c | 28.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2947…4cf4backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc70…cc56backed No | 75c | 20.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8e…050bbacked Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8714…5802backed Yes | 76c | 18.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?this page
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.