Middle East · resolved market
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 3, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04c48eae0920812211ff287f2669166def175b9f8e3431e38f7b243a2f0d1a89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2282…1051backed No | 0c | 8,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 3c | 2,374$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.22 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c3…1d43backed No | 0c | 2,005$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 3c | 1,258$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c04…97bdbacked No | 11c | 917.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 5c | 789.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 5c | 700$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f4…50e7backed No | 6c | 660.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed No | 6c | 599.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 159 | 6.9%11 W · 148 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…aa34backed No | 6c | 576.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 3c | 560$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c13…ce0ebacked No | 10c | 459.93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 63 | 9.5%6 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b9…dc25backed No | 6c | 428.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 3c | 410.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed No | 5c | 409.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x396b…1759backed No | 7c | 392.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb630…f3e6backed No | 10c | 365.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 9c | 344.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 9c | 344.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 119 | 9.2%11 W · 108 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3106…23a8backed No | 4c | 304$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…bffcbacked No | 12c | 283.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x382a…b590backed No | 7c | 274.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf47f…fc3dbacked No | 12c | 249.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +660.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e5…9179backed No | 5c | 220.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x597d…b97dbacked No | 7c | 210$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 39 | 5.1%2 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked No | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked No | 16c | 164.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…3525backed No | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbad…c86ebacked No | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -96.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb8…f154backed No | 11c | 147.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed No | 14c | 120.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | -6.8wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 10c | 114.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0430…bb31backed No | 13c | 109.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…3fa5backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 3, 2026?this page
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.