Middle East · resolved market
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f98447c50ab37577b60a78bcc4817ec34d353c4fd615828658d8dc0135d0a63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,155
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,155 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4934…5951backed No | 0c | 5,429$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | +10.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 4,261$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…1928backed No | 2c | 3,470$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 4cpaid | +1,955.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 2c | 2,287$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 1c | 2,135$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd968…c48cbacked No | 1c | 1,829$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11bf…151cbacked No | 2c | 1,343$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 3c | 1,250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 1,122$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa54f…2d7fbacked No | 15c | 793.89$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…3880backed No | 2c | 784.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 133 | 21.8%29 W · 104 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 3c | 760.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 620.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db7…8f9bbacked Yes | 63c | 466.62$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.42 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd431…9517backed Yes | 69c | 433.1$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.1 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 65c | 422.77$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.71 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 42c | 422.26$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.22 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 2c | 418.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 113 | 20.4%23 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 6c | 409.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 324.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.11 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 78c | 213.91$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.07 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +10.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…cfb7backed No | 7c | 207.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +193.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 8c | 195.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 20c | 175.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.29 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 13c | 168.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d7…f795backed Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 33c | 159.09$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.59 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | +19.6wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 14c | 158.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 76c | 155.49$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 16c | 155$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…d63fbacked Yes | 63c | 124.09$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.09 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a77…4fcfbacked Yes | 44c | 120.58$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 29c | 118.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 9c | 116.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe87f…7822backed Yes | 80c | 106.51$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70ef…63b4backed No | 80c | 104.03$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.88 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x396b…1759backed No | 15c | 101$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed No | 55c | 98.24$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.03 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 46c | 90.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +41.8wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 78+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…8e51backed Yes | 73c | 85.77$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…3c2dbacked No | 64c | 79.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.65 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 80c | 78$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 16c | 74.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 21c | 74.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 31c | 71.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66ca…f9d5backed Yes | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 76c | 59.47$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 43c | 57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f59…e61dbacked No | 40c | 51.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 171 | 29.2%50 W · 121 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2d…9375backed Yes | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51a2…051bbacked Yes | 67c | 45.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3b…6b17backed No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 41c | 39.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…a940backed No | 41c | 36.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b0…06a4backed No | 43c | 34.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 32c | 34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…306bbacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5839…2fc4backed Yes | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 55c | 30.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0202…55b0backed Yes | 60c | 25.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 47c | 24.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 123 | 62.6%77 W · 46 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5d…63edbacked Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 50c | 23.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 55c | 21.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2947…4cf4backed No | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?this page
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.