Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94ce0319b4c6e79230c2d3c4321f6cbd57447b567d9b4faba9e171f2809e3fc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,679$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.49 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,443$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.43 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed Yes | 1c | 4,536$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37a…bc60backed Yes | 1c | 2,142$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf005…49b3backed Yes | 1c | 1,907$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,132$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.05 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 77c | 268.27$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 6c | 223.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 6c | 188.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 18c | 171.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 151$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 77c | 150.46$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.73 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 18c | 150.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 66c | 144.48$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 21c | 137.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 54c | 133.58$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 76c | 129.83$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.03 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 28c | 124.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 118.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.44 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 41c | 108.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 79c | 106.32$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.13 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…1bc5backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe713…c9a0backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 37c | 99.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 37c | 99.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 18c | 81.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 63c | 81.64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 72.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 30c | 66.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 69c | 66.46$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 21c | 60.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 70c | 60.17$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 63c | 54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9701…921abacked Yes | 29c | 50.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 63c | 49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 47c | 40.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…7421backed No | 80c | 39.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 47c | 39.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc987…123abacked No | 57c | 37.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4624…d4bfbacked No | 54c | 37.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c9ebacked Yes | 37c | 34.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 37c | 28.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 41c | 24.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 49c | 21.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 70c | 21.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 66c | 20.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 59c | 18.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed No | 63c | 16.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 68c | 14.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…6083backed No | 75c | 14.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on May 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 40°C or higher on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.