Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38c3717cd529ef7690a0e688aa05ccbfb6f7e47d43d434983fdf1b09cf029ec8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,196
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 1c | 2,650$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,940$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 48c | 526.26$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.13 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 260.16$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 55c | 171.69$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.62 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 21c | 140.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.53 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 10c | 122.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 13c | 119.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 119$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.44 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 79c | 103.65$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4624…d4bfbacked No | 20c | 102.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 98.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 11c | 90$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 22c | 89.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 45c | 80.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 46c | 80.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 33c | 77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 28c | 72.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 22c | 65.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 20c | 63.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 65c | 58.76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 56.6$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 49c | 54.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18c9…1e8abacked No | 28c | 51.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.46 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +6.5wins | +0.34per pick | 34cpaid | +195.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 80c | 50.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked Yes | 77c | 44.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6918…7816backed No | 80c | 36.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.25per pick | 68cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…6083backed No | 57c | 34.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 77c | 33.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…3824backed Yes | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Yes | 66c | 30.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 55c | 28.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 68c | 27.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 49c | 27.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 39c | 27.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a3…00acbacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked Yes | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 65c | 18.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5938…7788backed No | 60c | 17.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 77c | 13.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on May 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 40°C or higher on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.