Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb292da2e6dd0794aea0f721fd3ce8cc1165e2ebd3aad922412e0ead0c33d12bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,643
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,643 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 31c | 472.45$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.88 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 28c | 381.09$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.21 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked No | 8c | 357.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 46c | 345.61$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.02 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 75c | 329.23$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.65 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 27c | 307.17$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 77c | 259.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.54 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 65c | 248.67$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.67 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 241$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.24 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 63c | 236.61$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.61 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…7544backed Yes | 76c | 211.75$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 60c | 171.76$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.7 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 163.36$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.03 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 156.02$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.36 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 38c | 155.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 44c | 144.8$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.3 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eee…d015backed Yes | 71c | 143.52$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 8c | 141.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcc…5f1bbacked No | 65c | 123.3$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked Yes | 64c | 113.3$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 70c | 111.52$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 42c | 111$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62fb…3df1backed No | 37c | 106.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed No | 17c | 104$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 69c | 101.49$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…b301backed Yes | 46c | 100.04$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.81 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 44c | 99.97$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.73 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f79…af92backed No | 15c | 96.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa37a…bc60backed No | 49c | 89.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 88.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x340c…f130backed Yes | 40c | 86.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 54c | 81.13$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 18c | 78.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…cc0dbacked Yes | 67c | 74.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 59c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…0de3backed Yes | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 23c | 67.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 24c | 60.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…4ea8backed Yes | 71c | 55.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 26c | 54.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc91c…02debacked Yes | 37c | 53.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 40c | 51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 50.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdff9…f85dbacked No | 50c | 50.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 56c | 50.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 48.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 49c | 48.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 66c | 46.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 64c | 46.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 43.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 50c | 39.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 51c | 39.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes | 41c | 36.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 39c | 36.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 59c | 32.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 65c | 32.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 55c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x589b…0381backed Yes | 71c | 31.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 31.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 37c | 30.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 58c | 29.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 28.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 70c | 27.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 45c | 26.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 52c | 24.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 24.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 59c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 54c | 21.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 57c | 21.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 21.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 53c | 20.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 58c | 20.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 54c | 18.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 58c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4c…1bb0backed No | 63c | 17.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…a4e7backed Yes | 62c | 16.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24cf…7e5cbacked Yes | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 71c | 14.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.