Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18694c19aff7be2ef6e2f07958f4607932d25631d7b0dae35646487b6ed8a86b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 29c | 380$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.8 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 355.62$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 36c | 338.96$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.99 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 324$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.42 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 9c | 266.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 241$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.45 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 31c | 214.89$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.79 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 8c | 209.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 15c | 203.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…7544backed Yes | 27c | 177.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 37c | 168.95$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 144.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed Yes | 38c | 136.46$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…14ccbacked Yes | 28c | 133.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 125.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 15c | 122.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 25c | 112.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 110$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 103.39$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…b301backed Yes | 39c | 100.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb278…0f72backed No | 68c | 99.35$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 32c | 90.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 24c | 88.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 66c | 84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 66c | 75.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 32c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 16c | 74.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 72.97$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 34c | 65.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 38c | 65.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 74c | 64.93$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 61.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…6ca1backed No | 61c | 57.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc293…c389backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 86.8%33 W · 5 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 70cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 64c | 52.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 64c | 52.43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 75c | 51.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0da…2342backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…f3f0backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 64c | 48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 25c | 42.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x632e…6a56backed Yes | 36c | 41.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x259f…3294backed Yes | 34c | 40.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 64c | 36.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 34c | 35.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 36c | 34.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 65c | 34.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…cb7cbacked No | 68c | 32.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 74c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 71c | 31.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 75c | 30.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255c…9256backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9282…cf25backed No | 68c | 24.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 66c | 23.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf7…c5b7backed No | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 22.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 65c | 21.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…c6a9backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23ac…7cfebacked No | 66c | 19.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 62c | 19.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 65c | 18.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc053…6041backed No | 67c | 17.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 17.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 67c | 17.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 71c | 16.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.