Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cb551224bd81af8d64382f1f26b828504ca3e0fecb46e94fc822d3efbcedb68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 10c | 273.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x683b…c863backed Yes | 9c | 270.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 266.32$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 262.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 13c | 235$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 6c | 201.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…7544backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…9145backed Yes | 16c | 143.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 85 | 9.4%8 W · 77 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 124.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 16c | 119.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 116.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 22c | 111$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 79c | 110.84$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 18c | 108.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 16c | 104.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 19c | 103.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 21c | 101.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 15c | 95.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 12c | 89.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 80.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x680a…0a15backed Yes | 20c | 78.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 76.47$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Yes | 20c | 74.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf559…8a92backed Yes | 21c | 72.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +153.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 20c | 70.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 57.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 80c | 56.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 79c | 56.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 18c | 55.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2588…eb36backed Yes | 22c | 50.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 21c | 48.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…7a24backed No | 79c | 30.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 79c | 30.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 79c | 25.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 79c | 14.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.