Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 8, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4259bf3c64e8dfa6194221ece2f417dc6ad540ccdc337fdd07725e7cb72070c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,970
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,601
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,970 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e18…8df4backed No | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4c…fb98backed Yes | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6a…3f05backed Yes | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 1,474$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.83 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…cfb7backed No | 6c | 1,200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +193.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47eb…8195backed Yes | 73c | 1,107$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.89 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 1,033$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…6677backed No | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +141.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked No | 4c | 900$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked No | 50c | 798.01$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…424cbacked No | 14c | 600$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b2…0eb2backed No | 27c | 569$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.63 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed No | 16c | 563.98$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.46 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2756…42efbacked No | 27c | 538$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.26 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 19c | 400.54$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.05 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked No | 56c | 393.75$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…f2f3backed No | 39c | 389.25$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.22 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…7d7fbacked No | 35c | 370.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7a…68e0backed Yes | 72c | 315.02$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.2 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed Yes | 58c | 295.25$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.79 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 27c | 292.5$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.37 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 20c | 288.38$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.68 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 7c | 278.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 11c | 264.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d06…00d4backed No | 22c | 249.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 24c | 235.1$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…bbd8backed Yes | 49c | 203.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.22 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x371c…c236backed No | 25c | 180.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 135 | 32.6%44 W · 91 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed No | 31c | 178.52$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.08 | 164 | 33.5%55 W · 109 L | -19.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 34c | 173.54$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.28 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +41.8wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 78+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…0e96backed Yes | 70c | 144.43$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…745ebacked Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…ca1bbacked Yes | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf00d…a887backed Yes | 73c | 137.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 73c | 126$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 66c | 121.26$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa908…203cbacked No | 65c | 115.1$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 13c | 111.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 12c | 110.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +16.4wins | +0.32per pick | 21cpaid | +138.8%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…a2f8backed No | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +8.3wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 26c | 94.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab8…e564backed Yes | 22c | 71.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.54 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes | 62c | 67.84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 70c | 59.53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 23c | 58.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -11.0wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…d3d6backed Yes | 40c | 50.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc81c…e454backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 40c | 49.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 49c | 48.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb27…9668backed Yes | 68c | 45.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a17…70c6backed No | 41c | 41.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -5.3wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a77…4fcfbacked Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5d…63edbacked Yes | 52c | 38.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 41c | 36.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab8…c189backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff1c…9028backed Yes | 78c | 27.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37a…bc60backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +197.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 201 | 31.8%64 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02b3…77b6backed No | 45c | 24.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +16.5wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 58c | 18.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed No | 76c | 16.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 169 | 61.5%104 W · 65 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 8, 2026?this page
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.