Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 4, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4c0b92d9a6733e5c2070df0ba15d52aeb3111861d7a17cc1d658ae167ba1fec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,143
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,650
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,143 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 1,568$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d3…0e0fbacked No | 9c | 753.61$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…f2f3backed No | 4c | 503.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 333.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 11c | 196$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acb…b682backed No | 50c | 194.5$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd70…b4b4backed No | 50c | 193.9$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9764…7fe5backed No | 50c | 193.11$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f76…373ebacked No | 50c | 192.91$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…e5babacked No | 50c | 190.96$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…1d41backed No | 50c | 190.57$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ca…cbddbacked No | 50c | 190.55$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…7c4dbacked No | 50c | 190.05$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e74…c002backed No | 50c | 189.9$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa206…536bbacked No | 50c | 189.03$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x668f…5303backed No | 50c | 188.88$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742e…5221backed No | 50c | 188.84$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2f…a2b7backed No | 50c | 188.46$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44e6…5ec9backed No | 50c | 187.98$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb169…391dbacked No | 50c | 187.88$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f20…e082backed No | 50c | 187.75$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…0319backed No | 50c | 187.19$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1485…f7e2backed No | 50c | 186.91$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…f4d7backed No | 50c | 186.9$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x272b…2546backed No | 50c | 186.77$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de0…bcb4backed No | 50c | 186.65$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781b…9c30backed No | 50c | 186.57$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd093…a20abacked No | 50c | 186.31$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5812…90a9backed No | 50c | 185.96$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae7…7796backed No | 50c | 185.93$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b15…2fb8backed No | 50c | 185.24$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf584…78febacked No | 50c | 185.1$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0240…3862backed No | 50c | 185.05$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0b…72e4backed No | 50c | 185.04$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce2…33c6backed No | 50c | 184.43$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x731d…a066backed No | 50c | 184.22$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe5…d4bfbacked No | 50c | 184.21$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5501…aff8backed No | 50c | 183.77$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8613…82f0backed No | 50c | 183.11$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bc…68dabacked No | 50c | 182.66$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22e9…6c71backed No | 50c | 182.44$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef5…e610backed No | 50c | 181.74$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73de…ea44backed No | 50c | 181.43$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x305e…61f7backed No | 50c | 181.16$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5d…d649backed No | 50c | 180.38$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…49fabacked No | 50c | 179.86$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…6f41backed No | 50c | 179.7$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…d7aebacked No | 50c | 179.49$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe7…fc32backed No | 50c | 179.44$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x403a…2c78backed No | 50c | 179.36$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf3…a6d4backed No | 50c | 178.95$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbdf…ccafbacked No | 50c | 178.64$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20d…2f01backed No | 50c | 178.58$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d3…3661backed No | 50c | 178.49$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e27…ee16backed No | 50c | 178.37$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x529b…cf37backed No | 50c | 178.28$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca0…1a81backed No | 50c | 177.55$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x187f…e03bbacked No | 50c | 176.84$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d6…2562backed No | 50c | 176.02$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e48…598ebacked No | 50c | 174.97$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x741a…ae6bbacked No | 50c | 174.94$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa26…1f5abacked No | 50c | 174.78$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…963dbacked No | 50c | 174.15$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x545d…20c7backed No | 50c | 170.34$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9b…4233backed No | 50c | 169.76$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 13c | 161.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 14c | 157.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8231…22e4backed No | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +11.7wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…551ebacked No | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 9c | 132$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed No | 8c | 127.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 75c | 66.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 70c | 61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…3ab1backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa78c…ca1ebacked Yes | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed Yes | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 4, 2026?this page
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.