Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 3, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdd59398a1a28581061567cf60d3716e0eb9881f9863720e714a4872524f9479
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,048
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,048 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xffd8…6d54backed No | 4c | 963.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 17c | 525.21$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.9 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +41.8wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 78+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 3c | 467.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 14c | 364.77$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…f2f3backed No | 19c | 346.64$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 272$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 6c | 217.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 24c | 202$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 16c | 194.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 15c | 175.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed No | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed No | 16c | 150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8231…22e4backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +11.7wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x586e…c8c3backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed No | 23c | 98.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 68c | 94.03$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 14c | 87.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x738b…6dc9backed Yes | 74c | 83.33$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 63c | 79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc207…b24ebacked No | 32c | 78.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 37c | 74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4870…6d52backed No | 18c | 58.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x422f…6b1dbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 77c | 22.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed Yes | 78c | 20.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 3, 2026?this page
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.