Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb08a3d66d2bc223a222f4d14549a35050b6fb5630d5b51059b8e843d05ebdf97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $222,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $219,208
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $222,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 167 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a7c…c26bbacked No | 2c | 30,000$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.38 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +5.4wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7c76…9349backed No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | 0%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4282…ea9dbacked No | 0c | 15,380$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d9…07dcbacked No | 36c | 10,153$3,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,647.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 4c | 6,691$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.51 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…293ebacked Yes | 39c | 3,149$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,916.12 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed No | 1c | 2,872$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 6c | 2,800$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.84 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…423abacked No | 60c | 2,384$1,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430.66 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed No | 3c | 2,300$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.01 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…e3fbbacked No | 57c | 2,277$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,296.14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…ba87backed Yes | 44c | 2,008$889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.92 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 1,993$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa9…9072backed Yes | 69c | 1,889$1,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.89 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +40%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x07b3…b017backed Yes | 33c | 1,888$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,266.37 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.6wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5664…f163backed No | 78c | 1,863$1,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,446.92 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x632d…0526backed No | 47c | 1,536$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.59 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 1,512$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 52c | 1,456$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.08 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +12.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 10c | 1,437$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.97 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x492d…9487backed Yes | 58c | 1,310$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.3 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9274…734bbacked Yes | 38c | 1,302$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.26 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd82f…c1b6backed No | 5c | 1,100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 13c | 1,094$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.94 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked No | 14c | 1,075$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 39c | 943.18$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.21 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x523d…cc1dbacked No | 21c | 913$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.73 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1100…815ebacked Yes | 79c | 913$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.73 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 4c | 826.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 4c | 823.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked No | 2c | 822.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 10c | 792.18$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.09 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 74c | 745.3$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.59 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked No | 41c | 709.28$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.99 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed No | 3c | 700$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 170 | 3.5%6 W · 164 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 68c | 694.16$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.88 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 39c | 652.69$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.34 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 32c | 649.56$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.76 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2c…d77abacked No | 13c | 637.92$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…f9c2backed Yes | 72c | 572.14$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.3 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed No | 10c | 542.46$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.64 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x024b…435abacked No | 10c | 524.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6165…a01abacked Yes | 66c | 516.22$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.22 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x303b…6380backed Yes | 53c | 512$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.21 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa630…2359backed Yes | 26c | 500$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1729…019bbacked Yes | 43c | 454.9$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 11c | 442.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 10c | 442.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…f2f3backed No | 31c | 418.69$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.7 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 11c | 405.73$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9766…03cbbacked Yes | 59c | 354.74$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 26c | 351.25$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.96 | 129 | 18.6%24 W · 105 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd49f…bb61backed No | 9c | 344.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9af7…9314backed Yes | 72c | 319.33$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.33 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…424cbacked No | 49c | 312.08$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.33 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d6…9357backed Yes | 69c | 309.77$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.43 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b6…3a92backed Yes | 34c | 306.13$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.96 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +13.0wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…cfb7backed No | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +193.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked No | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked No | 5c | 291$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41b…2771backed No | 40c | 288.76$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.56 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299a…e6d6backed Yes | 63c | 286.58$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.58 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccdd…a831backed Yes | 20c | 253.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.68 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec3…e98dbacked Yes | 79c | 253.29$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.29 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 10c | 244.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc86…e717backed Yes | 54c | 239.02$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.52 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bd…f03ebacked No | 12c | 231.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 123 | 28.5%35 W · 88 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9986…27aebacked No | 53c | 227.8$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.16 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f76…373ebacked No | 40c | 223.55$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x305e…61f7backed No | 40c | 223.4$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8613…82f0backed No | 40c | 222.08$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…d7aebacked No | 40c | 220.79$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0805…0bb1backed Yes | 36c | 217.11$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.54 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea8…80c3backed No | 40c | 216.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e13…055dbacked No | 40c | 216.05$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb169…391dbacked No | 40c | 215.53$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…49fabacked No | 40c | 214.84$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a15…f36dbacked No | 40c | 214.31$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45a6…9c94backed No | 5c | 213$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44e6…5ec9backed No | 40c | 212.8$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22e9…6c71backed No | 40c | 212.65$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc10…818abacked No | 40c | 212.55$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe7…fc32backed No | 40c | 211.06$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a23…0eb8backed No | 40c | 209.6$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b4…a2bcbacked No | 40c | 202$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed No | 68c | 195$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.9 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed No | 11c | 194.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 16c | 190.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 25c | 190.14$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.13 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2461…f240backed Yes | 77c | 181.66$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed Yes | 65c | 179.99$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.74 | 164 | 33.5%55 W · 109 L | -19.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x821f…d9f9backed No | 18c | 174.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +139.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 36c | 173.91$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…c17dbacked Yes | 73c | 157.44$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked No | 12c | 155.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked Yes | 39c | 154.17$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.61 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed No | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +5.9wins | +0.14per pick | 16cpaid | +107.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e0…9a14backed No | 58c | 149.53$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.47 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -62%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 26c | 148.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa37a…bc60backed No | 25c | 144.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +197.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026?this page
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.