TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 10, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$55,505
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$51,327

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,505 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb547…a237backed Yes77c2,676$2,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,060.522152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+52.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7666…1b9cbacked No50c1,979$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$989.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd4c…fb98backed Yes50c1,979$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5df…74efbacked Yes50c1,979$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad57…cff9backed Yes2c1,613$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9940%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes4c1,417$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017740.7%72 W · 105 L+13.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc662…b919backed Yes55c1,140$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.2814854.1%80 W · 68 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1b9f…c0d4backed No23c922$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.941154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+56.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x298c…67fbbacked No23c909$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.93875%6 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+96.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd2c3…9cefbacked No23c845$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.651844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd08e…2f7cbacked No52c772.44$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.4417929.1%52 W · 127 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x371c…c236backed Yes54c657.28$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.9913532.6%44 W · 91 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+24.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes8c623.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.161,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes8c561.08$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.542311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4b0…03ffbacked Yes31c477.16$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501250%6 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+57.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed No65c475.89$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.1616961.5%104 W · 65 L+12.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+20.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x35bb…009bbacked No54c475.55$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.116553.9%89 W · 76 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes25c473.6$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.476011.7%7 W · 53 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-44%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf90…41f0backed Yes56c430.09$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.4815740.1%63 W · 94 L+11.5wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+87.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa630…2359backed Yes4c429.19$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16825%2 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-24.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4de…424cbacked Yes37c420$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.459436.2%34 W · 60 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No35c409.67$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.5547334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes14c405.74$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.836634.4%126 W · 240 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes36c400$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14422547.1%106 W · 119 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked No56c360.26$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.8440433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae01…0c40backed Yes5c305.4$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.546918.8%13 W · 56 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbc9…2c1fbacked Yes6c253.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick22cpaid+112.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x99ba…6391backed Yes14c253.17$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6510321.4%22 W · 81 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-51.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8790…60c2backed No35c230.3$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.35313.2%7 W · 46 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-4.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes14c215.66$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4812918.6%24 W · 105 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick12cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes39c208.97$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.8113864.5%89 W · 49 L+41.8wins+0.30per pick34cpaid+83.6%equal weight78+0.26 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes22c207.61$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9350130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x175f…374cbacked Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40224.5%1 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick11cpaid-88%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes23c185.03$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9929254.8%160 W · 132 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed No60c179.96$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.772321.7%5 W · 18 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-46.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed No50c174.83$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.911859.3%70 W · 48 L+14.5wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+38.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdad6…0d14backed Yes48c171.51$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.554630.4%14 W · 32 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes17c169.09$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.399714.4%14 W · 83 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-43.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes66c152.2$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8636035.3%127 W · 233 L-30.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-27.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x94d7…f795backed Yes67c146.76$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.332466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.4wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+33.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9af7…9314backed Yes79c139.67$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1103330.3%10 W · 23 L-5.4wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-44.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x19fd…ca44backed Yes59c138.79$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.28560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ff…7d7fbacked Yes24c138.08$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.14757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cfd…ca1bbacked Yes73c137.7$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick61cpaid+5.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2940…304cbacked No32c126.2$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.3216131.7%51 W · 110 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7911…1bb4backed No28c102.37$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+260.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes19c95$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9831728.7%91 W · 226 L-35.7wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-48.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x1029…9b36backed Yes26c94.04$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.179728.9%28 W · 69 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No19c90.8$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.321831.2%68 W · 150 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdea1…9931backed No60c83.83$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.831070%7 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick72cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf00d…a887backed Yes74c81.38$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.223554.3%19 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x492d…9487backed Yes65c77.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-31.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes75c77.27$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.633964.1%25 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+25.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c7a…68e0backed Yes65c72.66$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.231625%4 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-29.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No74c62.34$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9377636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30cc…5ed3backed No30c59.98$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.982931%9 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick39cpaid+34%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe3b…eef1backed Yes39c57.75$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadd4…51dabacked No48c55.5$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.682245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9348…8cfbbacked No53c54.76$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.882227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee5e…ad2cbacked No28c53.57$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No32c53$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.042438.2%20 W · 223 L+0.4wins0.00per pick8cpaid-47.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x420f…a31ebacked No40c52.5$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.672846.4%13 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+44.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d19…fb97backed No35c51.89$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.574837.5%18 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf91f…2d9bbacked Yes58c51.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.761546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c87…967abacked No27c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid+23.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccb3…2eadbacked No61c49.18$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1812544%55 W · 70 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x32ff…f19dbacked Yes55c46.2$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.412070%14 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x76b0…417dbacked Yes72c45$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.44459.1%26 W · 18 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+17%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No66c42.58$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.526872.1%49 W · 19 L+10.0wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+24.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6b22…74ecbacked No47c41$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6411432.5%37 W · 77 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9986…27aebacked No64c39.81$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3310141.6%42 W · 59 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5acd…08fabacked No42c39.22$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.826939.1%27 W · 42 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa2…2599backed No44c39.16$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.025330.2%16 W · 37 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6260…ab8dbacked No45c33.34$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-55.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes52c31.06$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.233745.9%17 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x70fc…d3d6backed Yes71c28.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207337%27 W · 46 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ab…2048backed Yes71c28.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.998747.1%41 W · 46 L-8.1wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-11.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1c5d…63edbacked Yes44c27.47$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.012138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-31.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ff4…9cdcbacked Yes80c25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c4a…1b2fbacked Yes65c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1312040%48 W · 72 L-9.6wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-30.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed No53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.44645.7%21 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a4a…c3b0backed Yes65c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.92524%6 W · 19 L-3.5wins-0.14per pick38cpaid-50.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x97ba…f80dbacked Yes72c19.49$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.