Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 6, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x640b45b255e31bcd41416d5be27755ff7928ef138d912c77cec566d2db9c7d57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,674
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,674 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 3,697$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 2c | 906.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 5c | 553$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 79c | 432.06$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.38 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 2c | 429.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 14c | 387.43$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.33 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 14c | 352.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 4c | 325.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…f2f3backed No | 21c | 292.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.89 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 10c | 219.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 9c | 204.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8231…22e4backed No | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +11.7wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed No | 14c | 143.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe295…55b3backed Yes | 71c | 129$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed No | 10c | 109.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb630…f3e6backed Yes | 71c | 93.21$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed No | 23c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 164 | 33.5%55 W · 109 L | -19.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 14c | 77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 17c | 70.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc085…82fabacked Yes | 76c | 65.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 25c | 59.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 201 | 31.8%64 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…8506backed Yes | 74c | 47.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e7…98b8backed Yes | 72c | 34.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…65cbbacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…0a63backed Yes | 44c | 27.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 76c | 26.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 53c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 6, 2026?this page
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.