TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x298c…67fb

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
69
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Middle East, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 57 out of 100; worst AI at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT1070%7 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+54.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$233Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$125.3
Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$513Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$512.64
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+420.8%+$366.83
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$362Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$361.76
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win more than 49.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$313Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$312.76
Will the Washington Wizards win more than 20.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+176.2%+$44.02
Will the Memphis Grizzlies make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$336Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$118.04
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025–2026 NBA Southwest Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$36.34
Will Domantas Sabonis be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$214Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+47.1%+$100.48
Will Jonathan Kuminga be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$389Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+29.9%+$116.15
All 10 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$214Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$283.29
Will "Sentimental Value" win exactly 2 awards at the Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.16
Will "One Battle After Another" win Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture at the 32nd Actor Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$95.75
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$187.34
Will Joel Edgerton be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$52.13
Will Rose Byrne be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$24.8
Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$317Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+53.8%+$170.45
Will Adam Sandler be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$38.01
Will Guillermo del Toro be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$235Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+61.3%+$144.02
Will Jennifer Venditti (Marty Supreme) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$239Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+28.2%+$67.32
All 10 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT1010%1 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick22cpaid-63%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.45
Will NYC have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.65
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$261Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$260.82
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$85.69
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$49.44
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$136.6
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$309.66
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$164.64
Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$337Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$337.12
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+270.4%+$431.43
All 10 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick51cpaid-52.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$131.76
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$488Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$487.9
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$126.7
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.00 (LOW) by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$5.52
Will Sergey Brin be 3rd richest person on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$178.2
Will Jensen Huang be 3rd richest person on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.91
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.50 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$179.52
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$457Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$456.62
GPT ads by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$62.48
All 9 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT875%6 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+96.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.54
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$293Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$293.28
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour finish second in the Gorton and Denton by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$196Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+29.9%+$58.65
Will Starmer say "Brexit" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$16.83
Will Keir Starmer say "Rules-based" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$30.12
Will PLN win the second most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+138.1%+$26.68
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 18% and 20% of votes in the first round?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$167Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+40.8%+$68.15
All 7 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+482.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Southern Illinois Salukis (-4.5)backed Southern Illinois Salukis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+525%+$472.08
Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks vs. North Carolina Central Eaglesbacked Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$121.68
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$225.15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-01-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$370Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$434.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Club Brugge advance to the round of 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$222Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$221.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tyron Woodley win his boxing match against Anderson Silva?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$88.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 5, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-02-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$131.92
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.