Movies · resolved market
Will "Sentimental Value" win exactly 2 awards at the Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x798d918a1588a21b93f8948a0b64442e1eb7ee99d57cba762ed20006de68f1f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,575 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x61a8…f658backed Yes | 21c | 1,179$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.59 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a9…14ebbacked Yes | 1c | 1,014$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed Yes | 46c | 880$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.8 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x981e…d368backed No | 79c | 798$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.58 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e7…ebdcbacked No | 54c | 736$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.56 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed No | 74c | 735$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.44 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c42…1616backed Yes | 18c | 587$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80d…b42bbacked No | 54c | 455$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 65c | 442$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.87 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb593…28eabacked Yes | 46c | 438$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.48 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 63c | 344.05$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.02 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c5…4c23backed No | 54c | 314$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.44 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ce…b71abacked Yes | 56c | 303.71$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x486b…3ea7backed No | 79c | 285$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06bd…362dbacked Yes | 17c | 271.08$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…a3e1backed Yes | 14c | 248$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb28…74f4backed Yes | 18c | 243$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c14…ffa5backed Yes | 19c | 239.58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7e…7dfdbacked No | 79c | 225$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc927…be19backed No | 56c | 221.88$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…67fbbacked Yes | 46c | 196$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 50c | 187.41$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.2 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 39.5%62 W · 95 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd44…f151backed Yes | 13c | 159.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c79…14e4backed Yes | 33c | 151.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98aa…fcb3backed Yes | 22c | 151$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 17c | 142.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf825…2e4abacked Yes | 18c | 142$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 57c | 140.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.33 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked Yes | 27c | 140$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0235…7be8backed Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfe…bef9backed Yes | 49c | 132$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec9…3c85backed Yes | 49c | 131$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d4…25d9backed Yes | 49c | 130$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58fe…a8c5backed Yes | 21c | 129$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…1dd3backed No | 51c | 126$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d48…3861backed No | 51c | 126$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e28…6b67backed Yes | 49c | 126$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaf…eff6backed Yes | 19c | 125$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2a…885cbacked Yes | 49c | 125$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d46…2706backed No | 51c | 124$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c0…c599backed Yes | 49c | 123$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x360b…11f4backed No | 51c | 122$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8783…ea28backed No | 51c | 122$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d06…36b8backed Yes | 49c | 120$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60db…8ff1backed Yes | 49c | 119$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb20…2a96backed Yes | 49c | 118$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ed…9507backed Yes | 49c | 117$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…d816backed No | 51c | 116$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a4…cf6ebacked No | 51c | 116$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c58…eaf1backed Yes | 49c | 115$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9de…7a09backed Yes | 49c | 115$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa5…8f79backed Yes | 13c | 114.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34e0…826dbacked No | 51c | 114$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827d…f000backed No | 51c | 114$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077a…c46abacked No | 51c | 114$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x903d…aed2backed Yes | 49c | 113$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…0065backed No | 51c | 112$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b45…a01bbacked No | 51c | 112$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa6…9cf3backed No | 51c | 112$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd68…cdd3backed No | 54c | 111$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…e3dcbacked No | 51c | 111$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9800…940fbacked No | 51c | 110$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff9…3427backed Yes | 33c | 105.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd19…6910backed Yes | 24c | 104.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4657…00d6backed Yes | 46c | 102$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 17c | 101.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…750fbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee10…4473backed Yes | 49c | 99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 55c | 94.78$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 44c | 84.35$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.24 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 37c | 82.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…9844backed Yes | 14c | 81.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 76c | 76.21$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe094…fe93backed Yes | 27c | 75.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 56c | 68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf87…f6f2backed Yes | 49c | 68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…1796backed Yes | 21c | 65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 51c | 59.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 50c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b61…5e07backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2280…4ef5backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01b…c208backed Yes | 24c | 48.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 63c | 45.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 60c | 45.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b5…596dbacked Yes | 42c | 44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 75c | 41.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x277a…6345backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c70…173bbacked Yes | 51c | 39.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…728abacked No | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 80c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdf…af9ebacked No | 64c | 29.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -9.7wins | -0.27per pick | 46cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 71c | 19.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +97.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…7678backed No | 75c | 17.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…ace5backed No | 80c | 14.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.98 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Sentimental Value" win exactly 2 awards at the Oscars?this page
- Will "Sentimental Value" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Sentimental Value" win exactly 3 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Sentimental Value" win exactly 4 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Sentimental Value" win no awards at the Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.