TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Sentimental Value" win exactly 2 awards at the Oscars?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,575

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,575 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x61a8…f658backed Yes21c1,179$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.592045%9 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9a9…14ebbacked Yes1c1,014$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdb8…f285backed Yes46c880$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.83836.8%14 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-44%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x981e…d368backed No79c798$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.581060%6 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5e7…ebdcbacked No54c736$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.56933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-24.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83e8…7b89backed No74c735$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.447936.7%29 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c42…1616backed Yes18c587$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.66333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-56.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd80d…b42bbacked No54c455$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.32100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+66.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked No65c442$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.8724634.6%85 W · 161 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb593…28eabacked Yes46c438$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.48955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick36cpaid+28.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No63c344.05$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.0215641.7%65 W · 91 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86c5…4c23backed No54c314$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.441942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5ce…b71abacked Yes56c303.71$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x486b…3ea7backed No79c285$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.852100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+88.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06bd…362dbacked Yes17c271.08$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.08333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7fd…a3e1backed Yes14c248$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.721947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb28…74f4backed Yes18c243$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.74922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-68.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c14…ffa5backed Yes19c239.58$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.52450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e7e…7dfdbacked No79c225$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.25560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc927…be19backed No56c221.88$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.87250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-11.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x298c…67fbbacked Yes46c196$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.161040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes50c187.41$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.21,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes12c166.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015739.5%62 W · 95 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd44…f151backed Yes13c159.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207839.7%31 W · 47 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c79…14e4backed Yes33c151.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-45.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98aa…fcb3backed Yes22c151$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.55560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e01…757abacked Yes17c142.71$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.918231.7%26 W · 56 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid+22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf825…2e4abacked Yes18c142$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.56425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick48cpaid-65.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No57c140.99$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.333666.7%24 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x88bb…8d2cbacked Yes27c140$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.83844.7%17 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0235…7be8backed Yes18c138.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251225%3 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-44.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bfe…bef9backed Yes49c132$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ec9…3c85backed Yes49c131$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21d4…25d9backed Yes49c130$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58fe…a8c5backed Yes21c129$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.09837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-39.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1121…1dd3backed No51c126$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d48…3861backed No51c126$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e28…6b67backed Yes49c126$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdaf…eff6backed Yes19c125$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.752240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd2a…885cbacked Yes49c125$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d46…2706backed No51c124$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88c0…c599backed Yes49c123$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x360b…11f4backed No51c122$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8783…ea28backed No51c122$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d06…36b8backed Yes49c120$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60db…8ff1backed Yes49c119$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb20…2a96backed Yes49c118$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14ed…9507backed Yes49c117$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x773c…d816backed No51c116$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67a4…cf6ebacked No51c116$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c58…eaf1backed Yes49c115$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9de…7a09backed Yes49c115$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fa5…8f79backed Yes13c114.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157450%37 W · 37 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x34e0…826dbacked No51c114$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x827d…f000backed No51c114$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x077a…c46abacked No51c114$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x903d…aed2backed Yes49c113$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5081…0065backed No51c112$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b45…a01bbacked No51c112$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbaa6…9cf3backed No51c112$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd68…cdd3backed No54c111$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.06333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa02e…e3dcbacked No51c111$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9800…940fbacked No51c110$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff9…3427backed Yes33c105.17$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.491637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd19…6910backed Yes24c104.7$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4657…00d6backed Yes46c102$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.921435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-42%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes17c101.38$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.674721.3%10 W · 37 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-50.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70fc…750fbacked Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-41.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee10…4473backed Yes49c99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No55c94.78$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8334651.2%177 W · 169 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No44c84.35$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.2413337.6%50 W · 83 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes37c82.25$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.821,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c28…9844backed Yes14c81.14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.081225%3 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-41.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed No76c76.21$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5212938.8%50 W · 79 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe094…fe93backed Yes27c75.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-36.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked No56c68$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.867135.2%25 W · 46 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+0.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf87…f6f2backed Yes49c68$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce55…1796backed Yes21c65$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.65540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes51c59.16$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1713851.4%71 W · 67 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No50c55$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.4512539.2%49 W · 76 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b61…5e07backed Yes29c51.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+41.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes20c51$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3516015.6%25 W · 135 L-26.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-70.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x2280…4ef5backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101020%2 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd01b…c208backed Yes24c48.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked No63c45.8$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.169244.6%41 W · 51 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No60c45.38$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0211240.2%45 W · 67 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40b5…596dbacked Yes42c44$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.63944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No75c41.89$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6613333.1%44 W · 89 L-10.3wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-41.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x277a…6345backed Yes47c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+60.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c70…173bbacked Yes51c39.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4f…728abacked No73c35$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.454544.4%20 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No80c34$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8426641.7%111 W · 155 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fdf…af9ebacked No64c29.63$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.68425%1 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick68cpaid-60.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.753619.4%7 W · 29 L-9.7wins-0.27per pick46cpaid-65.7%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed No71c19.17$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.543450%17 W · 17 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+97.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x254c…7678backed No75c17.05$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.273360.6%20 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0523…ace5backed No80c14.89$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.98922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-67.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.