Movies · resolved market
Will "Sentimental Value" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x636668d22c6bc488ded40bbe104739ff91293b38e0108a27ac2b3bda379e6eb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,916 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x159f…333fbacked No | 45c | 819$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.55 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7d…5bc1backed Yes | 55c | 815$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.75 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed No | 74c | 810$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd6…019dbacked Yes | 26c | 625$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf8…c7afbacked Yes | 26c | 577$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.98 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb212…0f8ebacked Yes | 55c | 419$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.55 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…7f4fbacked No | 45c | 417$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.65 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…757abacked Yes | 55c | 400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…bf21backed No | 45c | 398$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.1 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8a…2562backed Yes | 71c | 338.96$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.96 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd44…f151backed Yes | 64c | 313.24$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.24 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed Yes | 60c | 286.12$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.07 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 19c | 276.61$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked No | 52c | 269$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.88 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed Yes | 48c | 269$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.88 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 62c | 264.51$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.51 | 157 | 39.5%62 W · 95 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…95c9backed No | 74c | 263$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.62 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f0…1e62backed No | 38c | 250.96$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.36 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 64c | 229.07$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.46 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…0cd8backed Yes | 61c | 204.92$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 24c | 199.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 49c | 199.99$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 73c | 199.99$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.73 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…3371backed No | 38c | 172.64$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 27c | 171$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.27 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde45…8238backed No | 74c | 164$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.36 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 39c | 163.03$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.79 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68e4…e42ebacked Yes | 30c | 135.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +238.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 71c | 120$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 36c | 119.57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.11 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6a…1637backed No | 39c | 115$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ca05backed Yes | 63c | 112.6$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 36c | 103.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe231…4e3ebacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.29per pick | 53cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc002…6f57backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf212…a810backed Yes | 78c | 93.89$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd19…6910backed Yes | 57c | 90.18$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 56c | 81.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ed…c99ebacked Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 35c | 76.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf29…3f46backed Yes | 58c | 68.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 37c | 67.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 118 | 25.4%30 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 42c | 59.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 26c | 59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.66 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 53c | 57.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 35c | 55.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b5…596dbacked No | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 41c | 52.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 74c | 51.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b61…5e07backed Yes | 49c | 50.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 50.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 45c | 45.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed Yes | 44c | 45.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 50c | 45.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ed…afd3backed No | 44c | 44.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 51c | 43.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 48c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked No | 39c | 41.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb313…f17bbacked No | 79c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x277a…6345backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebb…924abacked Yes | 49c | 39.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe094…fe93backed Yes | 53c | 37.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc540…f00dbacked No | 40c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0109…ecc3backed Yes | 60c | 37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2526…9f68backed Yes | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…79a4backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcb…b296backed Yes | 59c | 33.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.7wins | -0.27per pick | 57cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0235…7be8backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc21…f03cbacked No | 36c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad42…c918backed Yes | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed Yes | 59c | 30.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2280…4ef5backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 76c | 29.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 37c | 27.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 40c | 25.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e0…c33abacked Yes | 61c | 24.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb079…9bb1backed Yes | 57c | 20.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…94f7backed Yes | 61c | 18.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdf…af9ebacked No | 71c | 14.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Sentimental Value" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars?this page
- Will "Sentimental Value" win exactly 2 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Sentimental Value" win exactly 3 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Sentimental Value" win exactly 4 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Sentimental Value" win no awards at the Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.