Movies · resolved market
Will "Sentimental Value" win no awards at the Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb32762a63d946ea50bce30f25f51f41a6bf4137f38c9027738fe22d372678dee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,485 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf825…2e4abacked Yes | 27c | 1,341$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…d947backed No | 78c | 1,232$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93c0…b919backed No | 75c | 1,064$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…9357backed Yes | 12c | 914$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.68 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b2…9d96backed Yes | 11c | 897$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.67 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c22…50e1backed Yes | 25c | 745$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes | 25c | 733$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.25 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfe…6108backed No | 73c | 657$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…dbd4backed No | 80c | 651$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.2 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99ab…edc1backed Yes | 22c | 568$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked Yes | 22c | 555$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…9930backed No | 73c | 520$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.4 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1a79…1ccbbacked Yes | 16c | 474$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.84 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05f2…95debacked Yes | 16c | 456$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…e8e9backed Yes | 16c | 455$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82dd…5514backed No | 75c | 378$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed Yes | 11c | 344$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…b750backed Yes | 20c | 330$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…77febacked Yes | 20c | 321$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x691d…b2debacked No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…7f5dbacked Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec1…2778backed No | 76c | 296.05$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4434…54b8backed Yes | 24c | 296.05$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 14c | 294$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked Yes | 23c | 211.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…dd5fbacked No | 73c | 196$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3c…a29ebacked Yes | 22c | 181$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 18c | 169.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeccc…71f5backed Yes | 29c | 164.11$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 25c | 159.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 14c | 156$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x874a…d584backed No | 78c | 146$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 13c | 123.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed Yes | 19c | 106.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…5783backed Yes | 18c | 102.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ae…08cdbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a49…4292backed Yes | 31c | 99.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 17c | 98.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98b8…b240backed Yes | 29c | 97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 23c | 93.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 76c | 41.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc98…62ecbacked No | 75c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf937…53a1backed No | 80c | 25.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…1d30backed No | 80c | 22.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 80c | 21.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…7678backed No | 75c | 14.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Sentimental Value" win no awards at the Oscars?this page
- Will "Sentimental Value" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Sentimental Value" win exactly 2 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Sentimental Value" win exactly 3 awards at the Oscars?No won
- Will "Sentimental Value" win exactly 4 awards at the Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.