Movies · resolved market
Will "One Battle After Another" win Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture at the 32nd Actor Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a26007e9758d5f32c1b6750721a5dbf66d4d97034965e90ee13d9b93454b288
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 9c | 893.45$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.91 | 133 | 21.1%28 W · 105 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 37c | 891.32$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.04 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed No | 68c | 878$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.96 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…9e42backed Yes | 32c | 770$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.4 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed Yes | 28c | 630$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.4 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…95e1backed No | 75c | 622$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…dbd4backed No | 72c | 552$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.56 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 69c | 520$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.3 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 44c | 467.82$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.89 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 35c | 421$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.92 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…67fbbacked Yes | 25c | 383$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.75 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb6…6d5fbacked Yes | 26c | 360$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a0…cae1backed No | 74c | 360$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +161.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bb…a993backed Yes | 55c | 259.9$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.15 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89b2…0eb2backed Yes | 25c | 217$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde45…8238backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked Yes | 32c | 165$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe6…db65backed Yes | 40c | 158$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…d780backed Yes | 40c | 158$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc728…b668backed Yes | 40c | 156$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x926a…3b1ebacked No | 68c | 152$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…0b4dbacked Yes | 40c | 152$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bf…5ad4backed Yes | 40c | 151$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…aeb6backed Yes | 40c | 145$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 17c | 144$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.52 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 41c | 139$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.19 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2b…b62ebacked No | 60c | 107$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5527…4e68backed No | 43c | 105.95$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.86 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 48cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc349…a6ebbacked No | 60c | 104$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe149…5fa6backed No | 60c | 103$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ea…ebabbacked No | 60c | 102$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…293cbacked No | 75c | 102$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88cd…0f45backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 68c | 99.7$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 36c | 99.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2c…0776backed No | 60c | 97$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda5a…cabcbacked No | 60c | 95$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes | 32c | 95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…ca7dbacked No | 60c | 93$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…4d3fbacked No | 60c | 93$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b4…1b1ebacked No | 60c | 92$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed No | 72c | 78$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b2…9d96backed No | 75c | 76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8057…c087backed Yes | 40c | 66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…cf43backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 75c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0e…79c8backed No | 64c | 48.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 41c | 47.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked Yes | 39c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 74c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 64c | 29.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa680…c13fbacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4e…da28backed No | 69c | 20.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc5…7f5fbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 56c | 18.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…7922backed No | 69c | 17.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "One Battle After Another" win Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture at the 32nd Actor Awards?this page
- Will "Bugonia" win Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture at the 32nd Actor Awards?No won
- Will "Hamnet" win Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture at the 32nd Actor Awards?No won
- Will "Marty Supreme" win Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture at the 32nd Actor Awards?No won
- Will "Sentimental Value" win Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture at the 32nd Actor Awards?No won
- Will "Sinners" win Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture at the 32nd Actor Awards?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.