TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Sinners" win Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture at the 32nd Actor Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,821
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,818

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,821 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes48c1,529$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$795.3248236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02f8…6c22backed No37c940$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.8728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-41.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes62c909$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.4324634.6%85 W · 161 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x117f…088ebacked Yes63c827$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.991850%9 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3734…01a3backed Yes52c781$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.882441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22f2…90d7backed No33c687$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.712142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b9f…c0d4backed Yes67c687$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.711040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-39.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No38c662.95$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.85458.9%4 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-76.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5661…ef17backed Yes60c533$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.2862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+38.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4744…e229backed No40c533$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.2933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-39.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9859…0176backed No56c529$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.24540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-31%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6eaa…4456backed Yes44c518$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.08475%3 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.42per pick33cpaid+156.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd215…b4eebacked No53c511$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.83837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-44.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes65c500$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1754250%21 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x99d4…c2c6backed No42c418$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.361118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-68.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes54c367$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.4126641.7%111 W · 155 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1056…5b18backed No33c337$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.212948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2a8…2a44backed No48c337$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.761553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+27.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a16…0c03backed Yes67c337$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.211741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Yes53c278.69$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.8512938.8%50 W · 79 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5243…a73cbacked Yes47c258$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.742850%14 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ed…ec87backed Yes47c253$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.09955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes60c246.94$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.497931.6%25 W · 54 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1502…be53backed No48c234$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.321241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick31cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc450…a5b8backed No48c210$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.81643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+42.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8543…e28abacked Yes59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-67.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No60c194.33$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.611,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x562b…dc09backed No38c159.85$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.192927.6%8 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-36.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb920…7922backed Yes68c146$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.534445.5%20 W · 24 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No36c142.5$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.542552%13 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5527…4e68backed No69c139$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.17714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.33per pick48cpaid-67.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc0b2…9d96backed Yes67c134$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.221457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x328d…d02bbacked No40c133$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c2d…ddd6backed Yes63c130$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.11656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf922…6804backed No40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6269…31c5backed No31c119$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdeb4…170cbacked No34c119$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34cc…3a26backed No31c118$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa38…b3d5backed No34c117$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0a2…f810backed No31c114$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0e2…bf6ebacked No34c112$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8037…9bbbbacked No31c110$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3df6…8735backed No34c109$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88bb…8d2cbacked No45c107.21$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.933844.7%17 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4bb…a993backed No48c107$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.453568.6%24 W · 11 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xff5d…4e58backed Yes64c106$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.161947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8669…7111backed No36c106$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.16862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick38cpaid+102.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x31e0…4882backed No41c103$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03d0…d647backed No40c97.06$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.826152.5%32 W · 29 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x939c…98c1backed Yes60c95$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No37c91$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.678752.9%46 W · 41 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd70b…a152backed No56c89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.84714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick48cpaid-63.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcee3…2c66backed Yes66c84$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11e1…6419backed Yes60c82$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf78…e600backed Yes60c81$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e0c…c5dbbacked Yes69c81$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1248…04f6backed Yes66c78$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57a0…6786backed Yes69c78$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96c5…9c63backed Yes69c77$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d4b…5a59backed Yes69c77$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No37c76.58$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4415641.7%65 W · 91 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x175b…ea73backed Yes66c76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63b0…106fbacked Yes69c75$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x506c…174cbacked Yes66c74$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6532…f660backed Yes69c73$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfad0…1980backed Yes66c73$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06bb…04abbacked Yes66c72$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30e9…6ddabacked Yes59c71$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb976…c213backed No33c68$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.44540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+60.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ae…44adbacked No33c66$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.783951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1320…210ebacked Yes59c65$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd45d…6aafbacked No41c60$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f51…09adbacked Yes44c55$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.81040%4 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d47…06fcbacked Yes59c49$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.092100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+175.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x65cb…181cbacked No41c46$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3716…e4a3backed Yes59c46$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.86250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e17…0d52backed Yes44c45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+68.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7022…f64ebacked Yes63c43.91$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.25549.1%27 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No38c40.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4320841.8%87 W · 121 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No69c37.64$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2620668.9%142 W · 64 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked No37c36$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.366947.8%33 W · 36 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No63c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.913851.4%71 W · 67 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9f7…213cbacked Yes63c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b93…ccb5backed Yes59c27$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.07250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96da…69ffbacked Yes70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+14.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe068…c5eabacked No61c18$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.982821.4%6 W · 22 L-4.9wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-62.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8d3c…3ebcbacked Yes64c17.74$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.41771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.