Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95e134653ba9eeb91fbb46d3b6ec0d3eb943b4f90e5fd31f65a6fa50bc97e0a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $103,001
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,735
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,001 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 10c | 7,546$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.57 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4c…dbd5backed No | 52c | 7,260$3,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,466.73 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 8c | 6,536$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.86 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 47c | 5,097$2,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,381.62 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 40c | 2,990$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,201.28 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b2…0eb2backed Yes | 12c | 2,930$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.46 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…146dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,258$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.99 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe495…c165backed Yes | 14c | 1,999$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.72 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 1,546$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.67 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 19c | 1,471$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.01 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 12c | 1,311$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.1 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7edd…3749backed Yes | 63c | 1,258$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.52 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,202$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8556…fad9backed Yes | 5c | 1,194$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 64c | 1,101$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.96 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 31c | 1,016$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.87 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a1…64a3backed Yes | 13c | 965.18$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.54 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfc…98e0backed Yes | 4c | 907.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 880.57$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.11 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 42c | 823.39$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.44 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6e…2259backed Yes | 10c | 821.26$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x675f…a63bbacked Yes | 11c | 809.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 17c | 789$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.97 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1063…1d3fbacked Yes | 12c | 776$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.67 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…67fbbacked Yes | 10c | 747$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.45 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x591f…945bbacked Yes | 14c | 719.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6813…39e6backed Yes | 12c | 694$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.89 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 18c | 624$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.75 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 600.97$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.4 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69c9…3b29backed Yes | 73c | 547.74$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb23f…af02backed Yes | 45c | 538.96$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed Yes | 40c | 531.49$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.11 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 4c | 530.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 12c | 502.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ed…5e8cbacked Yes | 23c | 454.22$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.56 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 18c | 451.17$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.87 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…e4c8backed Yes | 12c | 411$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a0…b7bdbacked Yes | 12c | 407$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ba…408fbacked Yes | 12c | 401.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 25cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…6b65backed Yes | 12c | 395$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 34cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 388.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec8e…39b0backed Yes | 3c | 362.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 5c | 360.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 14c | 343$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 10c | 308.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 31c | 298$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.61 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66db…2bfcbacked Yes | 6c | 291.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73b1…4a78backed Yes | 62c | 287.97$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf26f…fa14backed Yes | 7c | 232.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 5c | 232.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed Yes | 23c | 200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 22cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed No | 72c | 199.38$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.77 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 198.7$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.27 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…9b13backed Yes | 10c | 180.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 7c | 180.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…3b6fbacked No | 57c | 162.17$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8af…37e5backed Yes | 12c | 160.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 71c | 146.81$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.07 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…7865backed No | 77c | 141.99$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed Yes | 8c | 132.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29fb…8accbacked Yes | 50c | 124.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x592e…87dabacked Yes | 78c | 122.33$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5a…9b2dbacked Yes | 50c | 121.37$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab44…a5b9backed Yes | 10c | 121.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…491bbacked Yes | 19c | 119.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa599…affebacked Yes | 40c | 111.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc7…e039backed Yes | 18c | 108.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 11c | 103.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 28c | 103$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69fd…b2f0backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1579…cc72backed No | 56c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x671c…f22fbacked Yes | 47c | 96.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed Yes | 24c | 87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 13c | 86.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 75c | 82.41$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…9f6dbacked No | 31c | 79.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…2c81backed Yes | 57c | 73.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7a…5746backed Yes | 55c | 72.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 52c | 66.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 48c | 62.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…ae8bbacked Yes | 69c | 58.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…8edcbacked Yes | 20c | 56.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f43…68d8backed No | 53c | 56.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 24c | 55.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 33c | 43.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 51c | 39.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xecf5…f5dbbacked No | 33c | 32.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +200.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a2…0020backed Yes | 51c | 29.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c7…0e11backed Yes | 75c | 26.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…f288backed Yes | 50c | 21.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe3…6580backed Yes | 69c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 20 | 90%18 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.19per pick | 71cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in March 2026?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in March 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in March 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in March 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in March 2026?Yes won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.