Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x307d453a6c8b58c494aec592ed5a754aa6526ad5b0eb58a46208131913fe0f5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,621
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 25c | 6,789$1,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,095.68 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 80c | 5,176$4,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.18 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 14c | 2,826$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,423.46 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d9…2857backed Yes | 6c | 1,700$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,598 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,566.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 46c | 1,493$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.6 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 45c | 1,400$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.9 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7edd…3749backed Yes | 59c | 1,388$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.92 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…bbf0backed Yes | 75c | 1,211$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.81 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,105$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.72 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6e…2259backed Yes | 19c | 932.53$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.55 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe495…c165backed Yes | 44c | 907.82$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.6 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…1700backed No | 24c | 839$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.68 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd68…cdd3backed Yes | 76c | 839$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.68 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc41f…7145backed No | 68c | 726.91$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcabd…3764backed No | 26c | 617$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.34 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…db64backed No | 26c | 594$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed Yes | 26c | 590.68$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.61 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 14c | 488.29$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.81 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 78c | 399.99$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.6 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x654f…61eebacked No | 10c | 367.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4541…30d3backed No | 3c | 366$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa692…fbafbacked Yes | 6c | 361.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.83 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 74c | 343$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.05 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 18c | 334.19$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.67 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 59c | 298$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.26 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ed…5e8cbacked Yes | 34c | 289.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.73 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 10c | 287.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x675f…a63bbacked No | 15c | 272.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 14c | 259.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.37 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 67c | 244.99$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.03 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 24c | 235.9$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.81 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 231.11$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.76 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed Yes | 67c | 209.9$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.9 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69c9…3b29backed Yes | 74c | 203.49$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 21c | 189.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.2 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…cf78backed Yes | 17c | 177.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +48%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 27c | 167.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 164.62$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.99 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…9a26backed Yes | 62c | 160.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 10c | 152$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.31 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 22cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 11c | 143.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 134.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 31c | 133.08$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 35c | 132$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.57 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…146dbacked Yes | 8c | 129.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.24 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 114.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.98 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 73c | 110$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.33 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x636a…09aabacked No | 26c | 101$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32e5…931abacked No | 18c | 100.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac02…db96backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 12cpaid | +769.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x541e…54debacked Yes | 16c | 97.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8af…37e5backed Yes | 32c | 93.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 16c | 89.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671c…f22fbacked Yes | 32c | 89.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.62 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed No | 26c | 81.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 31c | 79.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 72c | 75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.78 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.78 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9b…7d4ebacked No | 70c | 71.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe344…38f7backed Yes | 79c | 69.47$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x202e…f2cabacked No | 71c | 63.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c5…2dacbacked Yes | 75c | 59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.34per pick | 62cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…d98abacked No | 22c | 54.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 48c | 54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ba…408fbacked Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.61 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 25cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 66c | 47.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 26c | 46.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe050…5b4dbacked Yes | 72c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +153.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa599…affebacked Yes | 33c | 45.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 76c | 45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe28a…5f26backed Yes | 67c | 44.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…9b13backed Yes | 76c | 44.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 58c | 42.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 32c | 42.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f8…b9f6backed No | 71c | 42.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…32d9backed Yes | 75c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 56c | 36.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Yes | 40c | 34.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 74 | 70.3%52 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…ad9dbacked No | 61c | 32.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf65d…02a5backed No | 41c | 31.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6233…5cb2backed No | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 43c | 29.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3c…fc78backed Yes | 66c | 28.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad10…448ebacked Yes | 55c | 26.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1def…9279backed No | 76c | 26.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…91c3backed Yes | 79c | 25.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed Yes | 67c | 24.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 78c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 66c | 22.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf653…de77backed Yes | 56c | 17.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in March 2026?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in March 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in March 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in March 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in March 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.