Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7cf86694fbbf1a4c5a544f8623a63b87400a73f05c78428dc29a176ddb51608
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,531
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,531 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 11,168$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.64 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fea…077dbacked Yes | 34c | 2,000$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e3…2e0dbacked No | 67c | 2,000$1,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60f7…4383backed Yes | 1c | 1,970$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8b…cf2ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,298$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd6…3824backed Yes | 1c | 1,014$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 50c | 946.06$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.11 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Yes | 4c | 694$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0d91backed Yes | 6c | 689.58$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 3c | 558.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5d73backed Yes | 8c | 535.51$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa599…affebacked Yes | 3c | 507.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa692…fbafbacked Yes | 33c | 402.09$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.57 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 5c | 367$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf0…8642backed No | 66c | 352$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.19 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…4122backed No | 67c | 350$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5123…5e35backed No | 67c | 328$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72b7…43e7backed No | 66c | 326$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…92ffbacked No | 67c | 326$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.06 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a6…f836backed No | 66c | 318$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 306.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…146dbacked Yes | 8c | 296.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 49c | 276$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.77 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x687d…e28bbacked No | 70c | 229.84$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.95 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 80c | 215.78$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 16c | 195.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked No | 77c | 184.74$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe495…c165backed Yes | 11c | 183.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…0f05backed Yes | 9c | 161.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 76c | 120.53$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7497…6650backed No | 69c | 58.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 36c | 55.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 30c | 40.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x370c…3eb1backed No | 58c | 38.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 29c | 38.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 33c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7edd…3749backed No | 49c | 36.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87bc…ff29backed Yes | 40c | 36.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd7…6a06backed Yes | 32c | 36.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fd…c3b8backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 55c | 20.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in March 2026?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in March 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in March 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in March 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in March 2026?Yes won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.