Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3073420646809aba094329d79448a5320ab0a8a8c687b5697677d81d09a8dfe9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 24c | 8,568$2,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,077.22 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked Yes | 16c | 5,166$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.93 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 3,235$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 9c | 2,723$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.27 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed Yes | 32c | 2,393$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.76 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…ac22backed Yes | 18c | 1,876$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.68 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6e…2259backed Yes | 12c | 1,467$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.87 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69fd…b2f0backed Yes | 13c | 1,217$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.9 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf100…2fcabacked No | 74c | 1,171$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6233…5cb2backed Yes | 16c | 1,133$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.45 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…add3backed No | 73c | 1,061$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.47 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed No | 68c | 1,038$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.16 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed No | 73c | 1,026$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.02 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9498…d950backed Yes | 27c | 945$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e17…0d52backed No | 73c | 945$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc315…6411backed Yes | 32c | 881$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.92 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed Yes | 27c | 870$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.9 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…00e6backed Yes | 27c | 854$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.58 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes | 27c | 852$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.04 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed No | 68c | 819$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.08 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…b54dbacked No | 68c | 807$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.24 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed Yes | 34c | 805$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.15 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2756…42efbacked No | 68c | 767$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.44 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c42…1616backed No | 68c | 703$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.96 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb23f…af02backed Yes | 3c | 579.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd2…ae40backed Yes | 32c | 573$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.36 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…b300backed Yes | 32c | 531$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.92 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked Yes | 32c | 507$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.24 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5d73backed Yes | 13c | 489.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd569…3037backed No | 73c | 489$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.03 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb882…f1febacked No | 64c | 478$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6063…69f2backed No | 68c | 450.1$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 76c | 354.15$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.88 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 5c | 343$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed No | 58c | 314.54$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.94 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 7c | 313.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b52…eecabacked Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 6c | 298$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9deb…8108backed Yes | 7c | 292.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa692…fbafbacked Yes | 14c | 274.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…146dbacked No | 65c | 267.59$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.27 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f43…68d8backed Yes | 12c | 256.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 4c | 251.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e9…f158backed Yes | 5c | 232.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe495…c165backed No | 79c | 227.06$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.25 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 225.54$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.13 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9a…6fb2backed Yes | 11c | 214$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 74c | 199.99$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…395ebacked Yes | 11c | 199$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e97…5b49backed No | 59c | 170$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 15c | 149.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 147.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x907a…206ebacked Yes | 7c | 144.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…9930backed No | 74c | 139$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671c…f22fbacked Yes | 34c | 133.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ed…5e8cbacked Yes | 28c | 128.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 15c | 115.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…d8e3backed No | 68c | 101$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 76c | 92.77$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 92.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 18c | 89.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…6065backed No | 57c | 87.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 16c | 78.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 37c | 78.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 68c | 72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 65c | 67.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8af…37e5backed Yes | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fb…828dbacked No | 62c | 56.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…ad9dbacked Yes | 36c | 55.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7497…6650backed Yes | 39c | 51.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f9…8a8bbacked No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c15…03debacked Yes | 34c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x541e…54debacked Yes | 35c | 38.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d22…bf3fbacked No | 61c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d78…c93dbacked No | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…cbe3backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1742…f616backed No | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6af…532dbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in March 2026?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in March 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in March 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in March 2026?Yes won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in March 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.