Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cb624256dc39ac51e2a17745f9b190f5939ef063381b053ec3d9d7f2dd62997
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,323
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,323 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 8,809$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.86 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a40…f3d7backed Yes | 1c | 1,568$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed Yes | 9c | 1,415$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.75 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe495…c165backed Yes | 15c | 1,370$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.7 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 3c | 1,176$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fea…077dbacked Yes | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e3…2e0dbacked No | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Yes | 7c | 943$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.8 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6233…5cb2backed Yes | 4c | 849.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…146dbacked Yes | 6c | 803.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5d73backed Yes | 6c | 620.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 9c | 471$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50eb…c59fbacked Yes | 13c | 425$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0d91backed Yes | 9c | 419.39$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ba…f02dbacked Yes | 13c | 392$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47eb…8195backed Yes | 11c | 338$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 10c | 327.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7d…5bc1backed Yes | 11c | 326$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…cf78backed Yes | 16c | 310.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +48%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa692…fbafbacked Yes | 21c | 310.34$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.17 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 12c | 286.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…6feebacked Yes | 20c | 282$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 76c | 234.18$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.46 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 193.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…4122backed No | 76c | 185$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72b7…43e7backed No | 76c | 182.74$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…92ffbacked No | 76c | 176$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…1dcfbacked Yes | 17c | 176$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5123…5e35backed No | 76c | 173$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a6…f836backed No | 76c | 170$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf0…8642backed No | 76c | 165$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 24c | 151.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 11c | 118.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 13c | 97.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 19c | 93.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 24c | 89.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 57.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe94a…0ff1backed Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 23c | 43.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 80c | 21.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in March 2026?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in March 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in March 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in March 2026?Yes won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in March 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.