Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec0ccadac9d0aba10f633086e4d5ee435b0178f5f556a10818c6ba104e242afa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b1b…5951backed Yes | 80c | 11,841$9,473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,472.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c67…38cbbacked No | 20c | 11,490$2,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,192 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 10c | 7,361$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.16 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 5,230$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6e…2259backed Yes | 4c | 2,197$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.47 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a2…7e07backed Yes | 1c | 1,747$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6233…5cb2backed Yes | 5c | 1,729$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.35 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,508$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…c6fbbacked Yes | 29c | 1,260$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.4 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,131$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed Yes | 18c | 1,046$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.42 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1bf…a751backed Yes | 34c | 1,008$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.72 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fea…077dbacked Yes | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e3…2e0dbacked No | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7155…d866backed No | 66c | 998$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.32 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed No | 66c | 985$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.9 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x465c…6e53backed Yes | 34c | 975$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 5c | 781.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…35e8backed Yes | 23c | 733$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.59 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x326e…c7b9backed No | 65c | 712$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd29f…26b4backed No | 71c | 641$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed No | 71c | 619$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.51 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe495…c165backed Yes | 5c | 618.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…6feebacked Yes | 14c | 561.76$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 557.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed No | 77c | 474$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.02 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5d73backed Yes | 8c | 460.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked Yes | 35c | 442$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.7 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…e3e6backed No | 20c | 351$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 3c | 343$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b52…eecabacked Yes | 24c | 300$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa692…fbafbacked Yes | 26c | 299.2$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.68 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbf…7328backed Yes | 35c | 270$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…8bf6backed No | 77c | 259$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.57 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 77c | 258.05$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.63 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 242.86$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.93 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 16c | 234.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 6c | 230.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 73c | 228.87$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.25 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 74c | 195.09$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.85 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 20c | 188.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a6…f836backed No | 71c | 188$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf0…8642backed No | 71c | 177$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 17c | 171.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5123…5e35backed No | 71c | 170$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…92ffbacked No | 71c | 161$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…4122backed No | 71c | 159$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.11 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x656c…af94backed Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf907…e7dbbacked No | 77c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72b7…43e7backed No | 71c | 145$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 12c | 133.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +151.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x671c…f22fbacked Yes | 34c | 132.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0d91backed Yes | 19c | 116.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 15c | 105.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 12c | 104.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 30c | 93.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ed…5e8cbacked Yes | 16c | 92.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 26c | 89.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629e…6be4backed Yes | 12c | 89.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c15…03debacked Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 68c | 74.97$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 29c | 58.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92bd…08b0backed Yes | 29c | 41.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 28c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 77c | 36.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3f81…707ebacked No | 64c | 31.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in March 2026?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in March 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in March 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in March 2026?Yes won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in March 2026?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.