Movies · resolved market

Will Jennifer Venditti (Marty Supreme) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d0a20f208e0c7374045ed6b64bac6bd69faa89246a3430da3ef928c6ab17e76

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $102,853
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $102,659

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,853 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 211 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Movies
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8959…50f8backed No	16c	1,561$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256.42	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-3.7wins	-0.21per pick	43cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8507…7f61backed Yes	78c	1,328$1,036 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$292.16	8	50%4 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf6ef…095ebacked No	18c	1,209$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.69	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-2.6wins	-0.24per pick	51cpaid	-50%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa355…a3a2backed No	17c	1,187$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.01	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x293b…c83bbacked No	22c	1,163$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255.86	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2934…9a60backed No	14c	1,147$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.58	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+24.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb25c…6d89backed No	15c	1,096$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.02	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xffff…35bebacked No	14c	1,083$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.62	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.4wins	-0.15per pick	38cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f52…a35abacked No	14c	1,043$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.02	21	71.4%15 W · 6 L	+5.7wins	+0.27per pick	44cpaid	+90.5%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0xd786…857abacked No	18c	1,038$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.84	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-2.4wins	-0.24per pick	34cpaid	-63%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0e29…d190backed No	13c	1,020$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.65	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-1.8wins	-0.11per pick	36cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe02b…e86dbacked Yes	77c	1,012$778 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$234.44	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+2.1wins	+0.23per pick	54cpaid	+50.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0fb6…5ea0backed No	22c	1,011$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.42	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	-56%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad90…9090backed Yes	80c	1,008$802 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$206.19	57	50.9%29 W · 28 L	+6.8wins	+0.12per pick	39cpaid	+50.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc771…e858backed No	13c	1,005$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.65	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x184f…a48fbacked Yes	77c	990$762 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$227.7	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	36cpaid	-63.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd98f…5afdbacked Yes	78c	974$760 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$214.28	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b45…836ebacked No	22c	935$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.7	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-2.1wins	-0.12per pick	34cpaid	-54.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x04d4…be7cbacked No	13c	914$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.82	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-2.6wins	-0.12per pick	48cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9264…3734backed No	22c	855$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.1	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-53.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c9…af45backed No	13c	795$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.35	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb88…6b99backed No	15c	793$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.95	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	-5.4wins	-0.16per pick	44cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8718…6741backed No	15c	790$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.5	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.2wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcde9…d705backed No	24c	788$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.12	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe136…cacebacked Yes	79c	755$596 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$158.55	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+1.4wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c09…28d0backed No	23c	753$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.19	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b82…1712backed No	14c	750$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec9…3e46backed Yes	78c	741$578 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$163.02	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74b8…0c87backed No	22c	740$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.8	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc187…bdf1backed No	22c	704$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.88	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf528…4441backed No	15c	674$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.56	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	-3.7wins	-0.13per pick	42cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0d05…305bbacked No	14c	627$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.78	37	48.6%18 W · 19 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0caa…fb12backed Yes	78c	582$454 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.04	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8717…f8a1backed No	15c	574$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.1	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	+37.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b47…9930backed No	13c	570$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.1	26	65.4%17 W · 9 L	+5.6wins	+0.21per pick	44cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf351…6284backed No	22c	533$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.26	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93fb…e392backed Yes	78c	506$395 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.32	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.10per pick	46cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7635…9ae0backed No	22c	503$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.66	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No	7c	500$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	71	25.4%18 W · 53 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6317…e864backed No	13c	496$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.48	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a6f…deaebacked No	22c	484$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.48	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.12per pick	37cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfbd…17c9backed No	14c	484$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.76	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7321…1812backed No	14c	483$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.62	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	+97.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d93…7f30backed Yes	78c	481$375 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.82	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-3.2wins	-0.20per pick	38cpaid	-64.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbf49…6cfebacked Yes	77c	478$368 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.94	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95cc…f215backed No	14c	473$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.22	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdaf…f63cbacked No	21c	464$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.44	25	52%13 W · 12 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc450…a5b8backed Yes	78c	457$356 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.54	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	+42.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9e5…d252backed No	13c	453$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.89	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	-2.1wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xecb6…cfe8backed No	14c	452$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.28	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+2.9wins	+0.26per pick	46cpaid	+88.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x63a2…3dfcbacked Yes	78c	447$349 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.34	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-2.6wins	-0.29per pick	62cpaid	-54.9%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x17be…7a33backed No	21c	447$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.87	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-3.7wins	-0.20per pick	41cpaid	-68.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x58fe…a8c5backed Yes	78c	441$344 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.02	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b92…f4c6backed No	12c	391$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.92	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-4.2wins	-0.20per pick	44cpaid	-63.6%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5383…88f0backed No	14c	387$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.18	35	28.6%10 W · 25 L	-5.2wins	-0.15per pick	43cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9ec3…3adcbacked No	14c	375$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.5	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x253f…e642backed No	23c	373$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.79	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes	43c	359.9$155 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$205.14	170	41.8%71 W · 99 L	+10.8wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x29b4…c17abacked No	15c	356$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.4	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+2.0wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+28.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c12…d725backed No	14c	341$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.74	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd622…defcbacked No	18c	339$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.41	43	48.8%21 W · 22 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x846d…4ab2backed Yes	59c	334$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$136.94	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd45…c05ebacked No	19c	321.58$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.23	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	+2.3wins	+0.14per pick	16cpaid	+28.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0aaf…4bd2backed No	22c	309$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.98	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x298c…67fbbacked Yes	78c	306$239 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.32	10	40%4 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x73df…ba67backed No	22c	300$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.09per pick	36cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc0c…6279backed Yes	78c	283$221 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.26	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	35cpaid	-21%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f5c…91bfbacked No	14c	273$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.22	32	56.3%18 W · 14 L	+2.9wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+24.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa647…d77dbacked Yes	79c	265$209 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.65	50	46%23 W · 27 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c42…a64bbacked Yes	78c	265$207 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.3	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e3c…a29ebacked No	16c	263$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.08	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-2.0wins	-0.10per pick	45cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcabd…3764backed No	15c	261$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.15	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-3.7wins	-0.34per pick	43cpaid	-75.4%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd286…d20ebacked Yes	78c	260$203 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.2	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.6wins	-0.23per pick	51cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe36c…a6f0backed No	12c	259$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.08	25	40%10 W · 15 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90e2…7babbacked No	38c	257$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.66	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+1.5wins	+0.14per pick	32cpaid	+44%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0733…cd5abacked Yes	77c	254$196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.42	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-1.7wins	-0.13per pick	44cpaid	-59.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x03b2…567cbacked No	16c	250$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	30	56.7%17 W · 13 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdb8…f285backed Yes	58c	240$139 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.8	38	36.8%14 W · 24 L	-2.8wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-44%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x533d…e5ecbacked No	14c	235$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.9	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39be…5e7bbacked No	13c	228$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.64	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes	54c	225.76$122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.71	129	23.3%30 W · 99 L	-7.3wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe27…9623backed Yes	78c	224$175 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.28	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+27.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda64…9bc5backed No	14c	222$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.08	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+1.9wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x14d4…cc6fbacked No	15c	214$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.1	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x27f4…0430backed No	25c	212$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	24	50%12 W · 12 L	+1.7wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+24.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca67…2648backed No	13c	210$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.3	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed No	54c	209.59$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.24	237	41.4%98 W · 139 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0042…e62fbacked Yes	76c	209$159 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.16	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+1.4wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+36.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes	70c	208.84$146 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.33	137	40.1%55 W · 82 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes	61c	200$121 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.87	184	44%81 W · 103 L	+7.4wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked Yes	45c	200$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.8	22	68.2%15 W · 7 L	+4.8wins	+0.22per pick	46cpaid	+120.8%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed No	32c	199.27$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.77	178	21.3%38 W · 140 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31a8…1f07backed No	33c	198$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.34	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce16…b18ebacked Yes	78c	194$151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.68	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.14per pick	66cpaid	+31.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdce0…7260backed No	41c	192$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.72	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	+2.5wins	+0.10per pick	36cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc362…7f4fbacked Yes	62c	190$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.2	25	36%9 W · 16 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-35%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f5…b750backed No	30c	190$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.18	20	50%10 W · 10 L	+2.2wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7238…e52dbacked No	15c	189$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.35	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+2.7wins	+0.25per pick	30cpaid	+94.7%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xab88…e0a4backed No	37c	188$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.56	39	38.5%15 W · 24 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec92…1214backed No	42c	186$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.12	46	45.7%21 W · 25 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Jennifer Venditti (Marty Supreme) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event