TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Tiffany Little Canfield & Bernard Telsey (Wicked: For Good) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$40,238
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,802

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,238 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde04…fa37backed Yes17c1,568$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.6829926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb5f…f3dcbacked Yes15c730$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.53727%10 W · 27 L-5.2wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-51.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x31a8…1f07backed Yes17c721$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.572941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc123…115cbacked No71c720$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.82653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x466e…ed99backed Yes13c656$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.283138.7%12 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes55c621$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.8912923.3%30 W · 99 L-7.3wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-57.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a45…9d4abacked Yes42c583.43$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.046541.5%27 W · 38 L+8.8wins+0.13per pick28cpaid+68.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2abd…74ebbacked Yes14c548$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.542828.6%8 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-53%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcdb8…f285backed Yes13c537$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.813836.8%14 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-44%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes39c534.99$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.617821.3%38 W · 140 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a08…2e25backed No28c519.1$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.74650%23 W · 23 L+8.3wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+61.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x76f8…5145backed Yes18c513$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.343743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked No59c507$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.362268.2%15 W · 7 L+4.8wins+0.22per pick46cpaid+120.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdcb1…c4e8backed No79c478$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.472944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab88…e0a4backed Yes16c464$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.243938.5%15 W · 24 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfec…09a7backed Yes22c444$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.263351.5%17 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce65…66fdbacked Yes18c409$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.622832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-40.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed45…929dbacked Yes15c398$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.73745.9%17 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ea6…32d9backed Yes16c398$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.182934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa938…a1ffbacked Yes15c393$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.952343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0c0…c4c9backed No73c368$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.542653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1d7…8c45backed Yes28c349$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.722540%10 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-32.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x14d4…cc6fbacked Yes17c335$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.952755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdaee…bd71backed No68c309$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.881266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+73%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7b92…f4c6backed Yes16c303$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.482123.8%5 W · 16 L-4.2wins-0.20per pick44cpaid-63.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x91be…2641backed Yes16c293$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.882931%9 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-38%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7d4…5735backed Yes13c271$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.513253.1%17 W · 15 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8996…9c76backed Yes32c264$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.483056.7%17 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+4.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8acf…2f7bbacked No72c256$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.781553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x846d…4ab2backed No61c251$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.191250%6 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-24.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc336…9f48backed Yes13c249$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.373148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2604…13ccbacked No80c243$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.293452.9%18 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes66c229.8$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.8717041.8%71 W · 99 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed Yes16c229$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.643652.8%19 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc713…891fbacked Yes16c209$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.443540%14 W · 21 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes35c208.11$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.8413740.1%55 W · 82 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xea25…d3aabacked Yes17c206.74$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.152458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd40d…b2fabacked Yes20c203.75$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.753946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f46…01b1backed Yes16c201$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.163240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa647…d77dbacked Yes29c198$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.425046%23 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6587…4f63backed Yes28c198$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.442458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes22c195$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3513040%52 W · 78 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x02a5…c0edbacked Yes14c191$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.742450%12 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ac7…dc0bbacked Yes36c189$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.041729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-50.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5885…6562backed Yes39c187$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.931637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-0.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f91…d531backed No65c187$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.131258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd907…f15fbacked Yes13c186$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.181747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes32c184$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9714015%21 W · 119 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes33c183$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.651,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No58c176$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.9218444%81 W · 103 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04da…dc10backed Yes20c174.16$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.831723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.17per pick40cpaid-63.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa2ff…b38fbacked No71c170$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.462437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdb7…6cd5backed No66c159$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.211926.3%5 W · 14 L-3.7wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-53.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x22eb…ad17backed No32c157.45$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.456955.1%38 W · 31 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+34%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x23e9…109fbacked No67c149.95$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.952642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+31.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes34c145$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.921,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9c07…0cbcbacked Yes16c142$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.721931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-51%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x809a…f315backed Yes29c138$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.023145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf666…8842backed Yes35c128$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.82352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+22.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc362…7f4fbacked No70c122$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.32536%9 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71f6…ea40backed No62c122$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.892744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes53c121.38$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.2612539.2%49 W · 76 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed No29c119.9$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.915739.5%62 W · 95 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x964c…44acbacked No63c119$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.843154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cc2…40d7backed No62c115$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.71650%8 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5880…a675backed Yes38c115$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.71442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45d3…53dcbacked Yes36c114$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.041844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b0e…282abacked No64c114$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.041369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.19per pick50cpaid+15.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1dfd…946bbacked No71c108$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.622860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5518…1211backed Yes39c107$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.732347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91ba…c705backed Yes34c103$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.021540%6 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes29c101$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.293740.5%15 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7b2…e6f2backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a40…904bbacked Yes36c99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.641457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes11c94.9$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4433123.9%79 W · 252 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf298…12f8backed No63c86$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.822352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x61a8…f658backed Yes34c85$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.92045%9 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4984…69d2backed Yes29c83$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.073638.9%14 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe3de…5339backed No71c83$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.073132.3%10 W · 21 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-22.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked No79c81$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6824634.6%85 W · 161 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6b9…d0c7backed No80c81$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.63655.6%20 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bae…8200backed No64c81$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.161369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.9wins+0.30per pick39cpaid+120.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x27f4…0430backed Yes38c80$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.42450%12 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+24.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f2f…a8aabacked No65c80$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.161741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fa5…8f79backed No32c77.31$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.317450%37 W · 37 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf40f…7fc6backed No64c77$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.021553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes15c75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.51549.7%15 W · 139 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdeac…95c6backed No62c75$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.52458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea1…6487backed Yes17c72$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.244025%10 W · 30 L-6.1wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-37.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1ecb…b5e3backed No67c72$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.762646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x293b…09a9backed Yes29c71$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.592055%11 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes21c68.84$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4648414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe17a…c6fbbacked Yes28c64.1$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.951741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed Yes72c64$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.087431.1%23 W · 51 L-7.1wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-30.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x667f…8c3ebacked No64c60$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.62050%10 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6499…05d2backed Yes29c59$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.112254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90ec…62aabacked No71c58$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.823847.4%18 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x787a…a54dbacked Yes34c58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.721915.8%3 W · 16 L-5.3wins-0.28per pick44cpaid-75.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x322a…3274backed Yes29c57$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.532254.5%12 W · 10 L+3.4wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+43.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe8bb…e885backed No68c55$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.62142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.