Movies · resolved market
Will Douglas Aibel & Nina Gold (Jay Kelly) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd8902c15beb23ca1b3e3840029c96280a6cfd9fc91fff9c3dbeb45de248b7b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2a4…ec0ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,303$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 10c | 818.58$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.61 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf8…c7afbacked Yes | 20c | 484$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed No | 75c | 477$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.25 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…7bd2backed Yes | 21c | 451$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.06 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…2479backed Yes | 18c | 403$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.54 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a40…904bbacked No | 75c | 381$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.29 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…2241backed Yes | 25c | 309$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.25 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 9c | 299$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…fa2abacked No | 80c | 295$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…3274backed Yes | 25c | 281$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.25 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 266.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…44adbacked No | 80c | 255$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 25c | 245$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4984…69d2backed Yes | 7c | 231$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…eae0backed No | 75c | 226$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed No | 75c | 224$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x282e…3eaabacked Yes | 20c | 220$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…c2e0backed No | 80c | 212$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9464…b4cbbacked Yes | 25c | 210$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 20c | 200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 137 | 40.1%55 W · 82 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59f3…a7fabacked Yes | 25c | 191$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a0…b7bdbacked Yes | 25c | 190$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed Yes | 18c | 164$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…6562backed Yes | 25c | 155$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1587…901abacked No | 75c | 154$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d4…be7cbacked Yes | 18c | 146$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…e748backed Yes | 19c | 140$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6317…e864backed Yes | 26c | 135$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d3…53dcbacked No | 79c | 116$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…09dcbacked No | 75c | 116$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x326e…c7b9backed Yes | 21c | 116$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +124.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfa…3888backed No | 75c | 113$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfec…09a7backed No | 75c | 111$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…c453backed Yes | 26c | 105$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 22c | 105$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x48f5…9dd3backed Yes | 19c | 99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x846d…4ab2backed No | 80c | 97$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e17…c6b5backed Yes | 19c | 96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…b54dbacked Yes | 19c | 95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 74c | 94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…fbe0backed Yes | 18c | 94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc40a…1f50backed Yes | 18c | 92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…d3aabacked No | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac7…dc0bbacked No | 74c | 65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81ba…b311backed Yes | 25c | 64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fae…6853backed Yes | 18c | 63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…34e0backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4406…5eafbacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…ea40backed Yes | 21c | 59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9a…cc24backed Yes | 21c | 52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9b29backed Yes | 20c | 52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…7577backed No | 79c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…9d4abacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | +8.8wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…bf21backed No | 75c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…a73cbacked No | 75c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6499…05d2backed Yes | 25c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…b46ebacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb50c…8c30backed No | 79c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeac…95c6backed No | 74c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…1dcfbacked No | 75c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe918…d166backed No | 75c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed No | 80c | 27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Douglas Aibel & Nina Gold (Jay Kelly) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Bret Howe & Mary Vernieu (Wake Up Dead Man) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Cassandra Kulukundis (One Battle After Another) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Francine Maisler (Sinners) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Jennifer Venditti (Marty Supreme) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Kei Kawamura & Yumi Takada (Rental Family) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Lucy Bevan & Emily Brockmann (F1) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Margery Simkin (Avatar: Fire and Ash) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Nina Gold (Hamnet) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Robin D. Cook (Frankenstein) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Tiffany Little Canfield & Bernard Telsey (Wicked: For Good) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Yngvill Kolset Haga & Avy Kaufman (Sentimental Value) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.