Movies · resolved market

Will Joel Edgerton be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a5d382dc831d45173cb9f5983fbdc9b0fedf074ae4a1f5f6e4f30eff9b784b8

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $58,882
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $57,181

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,882 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Movies
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xde04…fa37backed No	73c	2,015$1,461 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$553.92	299	26.4%79 W · 220 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a45…9d4abacked No	17c	1,763$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,463.66	65	41.5%27 W · 38 L	+8.8wins	+0.13per pick	28cpaid	+68.6%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes	13c	1,715$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.5	71	25.4%18 W · 53 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes	78c	1,369$1,065 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,065.1	194	40.2%78 W · 116 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26ad…990ebacked Yes	18c	1,046$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.19	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x252b…b46cbacked Yes	16c	1,028$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.66	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	+3.6wins	+0.12per pick	30cpaid	+77.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes	9c	1,004$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.48	237	41.4%98 W · 139 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x73df…ba67backed Yes	23c	912$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.67	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.09per pick	36cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6478…49f3backed Yes	16c	810$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.84	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+1.1wins	+0.16per pick	27cpaid	+20.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes	15c	749$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.33	246	34.6%85 W · 161 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb25c…6d89backed Yes	18c	721$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.34	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x245c…75e7backed Yes	13c	683$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.79	25	24%6 W · 19 L	-5.3wins	-0.21per pick	45cpaid	-61.9%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes	26c	654.4$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.45	178	21.3%38 W · 140 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf738…56bdbacked No	77c	599$461 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.37	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a10…e7d3backed Yes	13c	574$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.62	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+1.6wins	+0.18per pick	60cpaid	+26.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a5a…779cbacked Yes	13c	568$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.84	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2abd…74ebbacked Yes	19c	558$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.95	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	-3.0wins	-0.11per pick	39cpaid	-53%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcfbd…17c9backed Yes	18c	531$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.11	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	23c	526.55$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.99	1,394	8%111 W · 1,283 L	-47.9wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes	18c	524.78$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.77	140	15%21 W · 119 L	-6.2wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x73a7…3763backed Yes	3c	518.25$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.62	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x82aa…2393backed No	71c	518$369 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$148.67	37	51.4%19 W · 18 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a10…fbe0backed Yes	18c	515$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.19	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb023…6d90backed No	72c	489$351 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137.52	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-1.9wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28d6…f54ebacked Yes	38c	471$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.63	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.12per pick	42cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x997f…b3c2backed Yes	39c	461$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.71	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	+23.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x848d…76c1backed Yes	13c	452$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.76	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5838…367cbacked Yes	12c	450$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.89	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	+2.6wins	+0.13per pick	35cpaid	+16%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbe04…0ecfbacked Yes	22c	444.82$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd622…defcbacked No	63c	444$280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$164.5	43	48.8%21 W · 22 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c55…8adebacked No	74c	438$326 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.8	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe539…5345backed Yes	29c	425$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.98	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	45cpaid	-43%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fe6…d8e3backed Yes	13c	335$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.55	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcac…f545backed Yes	18c	330$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.06	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+2.4wins	+0.11per pick	44cpaid	+26.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5516…2263backed No	77c	327$251 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.54	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.12per pick	42cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0cb…ab6abacked No	61c	325$198 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.4	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	40cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e57…6c04backed Yes	38c	325$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.53	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.5wins	-0.22per pick	50cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9bf8…c7afbacked No	62c	308$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116.17	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7ee…421bbacked Yes	64c	300$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.1	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	64cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x298c…67fbbacked Yes	18c	288$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.13	10	40%4 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f5c…91bfbacked Yes	17c	275$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.03	32	56.3%18 W · 14 L	+2.9wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+24.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	20c	270$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.09	672	32%215 W · 457 L	+14.4wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-30%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x367b…48dabacked Yes	26c	260$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.3	31	45.2%14 W · 17 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe335…cd12backed No	74c	240$177 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.39	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+1.8wins	+0.10per pick	48cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xae18…1132backed No	71c	240$171 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.88	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3de…5339backed Yes	29c	228$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.44	31	32.3%10 W · 21 L	-4.2wins	-0.14per pick	46cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf6c7…f199backed Yes	13c	220$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.6	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde2b…73a0backed Yes	17c	217$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.11	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+2.2wins	+0.11per pick	42cpaid	+7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd491…60f0backed Yes	11c	216.66$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.83	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1809…c4f0backed Yes	11c	210.86$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.19	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a94…7154backed No	67c	210$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.41	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No	76c	207.42$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.68	131	35.1%46 W · 85 L	-14.0wins	-0.11per pick	46cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xda7f…c93dbacked Yes	13c	201$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.13	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	+3.3wins	+0.12per pick	47cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x188a…de60backed Yes	14c	200$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.6	34	11.8%4 W · 30 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe25d…c123backed Yes	13c	196.53$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.76	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xab88…e0a4backed No	75c	195$145 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.69	39	38.5%15 W · 24 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x68e3…934abacked Yes	11c	193.23$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.26	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.14per pick	19cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x755e…7b04backed Yes	17c	192$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.87	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	37cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce25…4e7dbacked No	71c	184$131 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.81	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	+1.6wins	+0.06per pick	43cpaid	+61.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf25d…8b1ebacked Yes	33c	169$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.31	37	45.9%17 W · 20 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd41…3796backed No	77c	163$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.65	23	69.6%16 W · 7 L	+5.6wins	+0.24per pick	45cpaid	+107.7%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xf049…29fdbacked Yes	23c	161$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.19	20	30%6 W · 14 L	-2.1wins	-0.10per pick	40cpaid	-28%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x934f…5054backed Yes	15c	159.6$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.1	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6163…58ccbacked Yes	29c	156$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.77	30	36.7%11 W · 19 L	-2.6wins	-0.09per pick	45cpaid	-20%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb58…b4d8backed Yes	13c	154.8$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.16per pick	34cpaid	+31.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c77…ac1cbacked Yes	20c	153.94$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.76	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes	10c	150$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	157	39.5%62 W · 95 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…54a7backed Yes	13c	147$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.11	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34be…6797backed Yes	23c	143$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.03	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef49…932fbacked Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	36%9 W · 16 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	31cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c12…d725backed Yes	23c	140$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.34	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb97…b54dbacked No	77c	139$107 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.11	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	41cpaid	+50.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x533d…e5ecbacked Yes	17c	137.48$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.51	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ea1…6487backed Yes	26c	137$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.17	40	25%10 W · 30 L	-6.1wins	-0.15per pick	40cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes	32c	136.74$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.12	92	44.6%41 W · 51 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43a9…faebbacked No	73c	136.7$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.85	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	72cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1056…5b18backed Yes	37c	136$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.59	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x365f…d215backed Yes	39c	134$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.86	14	50%7 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+39%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec92…1214backed No	73c	133$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.63	46	45.7%21 W · 25 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd06a…1dd1backed Yes	19c	131.67$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Yes	13c	131$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.59	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34af…9939backed Yes	12c	127.34$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62bf…e2e0backed Yes	11c	127.25$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xedf4…00fbbacked Yes	18c	127$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.14	5	20%1 W · 4 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1063…1d3fbacked Yes	18c	124$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.2	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	-19%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa05d…3e96backed Yes	23c	121$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.95	31	51.6%16 W · 15 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa151…13b4backed Yes	13c	117$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.98	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+1.0wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x290d…9e42backed No	74c	116$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.52	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5784…4018backed Yes	38c	114$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.66	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b74…93f7backed Yes	29c	112$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.14	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	-1.9wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes	11c	111$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.21	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-43.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03a3…fdf4backed No	71c	111$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.86	29	55.2%16 W · 13 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdab7…8f3fbacked Yes	22c	106.47$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.75	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fa5…8f79backed Yes	24c	105.31$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	74	50%37 W · 37 L	+4.8wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x91d8…fbc5backed Yes	17c	101.26$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.5wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.6	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	+2.2wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9228…e41abacked No	74c	100$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	-1.8wins	-0.07per pick	35cpaid	-53.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5801…a4afbacked No	70c	100$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.23per pick	77cpaid	+31%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc77…c035backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	331	23.9%79 W · 252 L	+12.0wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	-15%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Joel Edgerton be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event