Movies · resolved market
Will Brad Pitt be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x185ff38dc91745a349ecb6a97df6f1a8fd0f2e22b186a1e026269a5e447a628e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,467
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,467 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 8c | 2,782$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.64 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…de60backed Yes | 4c | 1,727$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 9c | 1,266$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.42 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 3c | 379.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 9c | 360$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 7c | 281$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 14c | 186$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac4…53c9backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 24c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brad Pitt be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Brendan Fraser be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Colin Farrell be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Daniel Day-Lewis be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Denzel Washington be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Dwayne Johnson be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Ethan Hawke be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will George Clooney be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jeremy Allen White be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jesse Plemons be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Joaquin Phoenix be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Joel Edgerton be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Lee Byung-hun be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Leonardo DiCaprio be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Matthew McConaughey be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Michael B. Jordan be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Paul Mescal be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Timothée Chalamet be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Wagner Moura be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Willem Dafoe be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.