Movies · resolved market

Will Wagner Moura be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59f734078ca93d13b90dbdd5af2595b4a0c9661754b3ed201d97ae071c458a81

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $134,019
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $119,362

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,019 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 215 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Movies
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xde04…fa37backed No	9c	13,612$1,209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,208.6	299	26.4%79 W · 220 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0232…2646backed No	22c	9,152$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-68.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No	1c	7,920$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.2	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No	8c	4,401$361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$361.43	71	25.4%18 W · 53 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5f…d395backed No	12c	2,088$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.56	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	-6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x163a…70a2backed No	12c	1,410$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.2	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38d6…e50fbacked No	12c	1,197$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.64	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6578…ba32backed No	12c	1,038$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.56	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-2.9wins	-0.14per pick	42cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x252b…b46cbacked No	35c	1,035$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360.28	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	+3.6wins	+0.12per pick	30cpaid	+77.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes	75c	1,000$752 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$248.02	184	44%81 W · 103 L	+7.4wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe72c…bbf0backed No	12c	982$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.84	20	55%11 W · 9 L	+2.5wins	+0.12per pick	43cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5395…9d41backed No	12c	948$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.76	15	80%12 W · 3 L	+4.6wins	+0.31per pick	49cpaid	+89.4%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0xb338…1ff0backed No	11c	941$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.51	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcde9…d705backed No	10c	915$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.5	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9498…d950backed No	12c	895$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.4	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.10per pick	30cpaid	+33.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2fd…f0b5backed No	12c	797$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.64	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	32cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1b7…d913backed No	10c	781$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.1	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.07per pick	30cpaid	+40.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b45…836ebacked No	12c	764$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.68	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-2.1wins	-0.12per pick	34cpaid	-54.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes	21c	723.87$152 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$571.86	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	13c	700.63$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.36	1,394	8%111 W · 1,283 L	-47.9wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcabd…3764backed No	12c	697$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.64	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-3.7wins	-0.34per pick	43cpaid	-75.4%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x12ef…f5cebacked No	12c	666$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.92	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	+1.5wins	+0.06per pick	43cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4628…ee62backed No	12c	662$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.44	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa756…b167backed No	12c	654$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.48	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d17…0e2bbacked No	12c	650$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+2.5wins	+0.16per pick	41cpaid	+58.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6875…a145backed No	8c	620.24$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked No	9c	606$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.37	246	34.6%85 W · 161 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf786…6fbebacked No	20c	588$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.78	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No	20c	561.39$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.65	140	15%21 W · 119 L	-6.2wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2da…553dbacked No	11c	477$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.47	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xcc0c…6279backed No	12c	476$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.12	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	35cpaid	-21%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cc7…5536backed No	7c	461$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.4	40	30%12 W · 28 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	+59.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b82…1712backed No	12c	458$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.96	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No	7c	454.1$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.93	278	1.8%5 W · 273 L	-9.2wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7e2…d8b8backed No	14c	441$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.74	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe27…9623backed No	12c	428$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.36	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+27.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d89…637ebacked Yes	66c	422.58$279 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$143.93	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.18per pick	49cpaid	+115.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdb7…6cd5backed No	11c	411$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.59	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-3.7wins	-0.19per pick	46cpaid	-53.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked No	11c	397.82$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.07	71	35.2%25 W · 46 L	+4.7wins	+0.07per pick	29cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaef9…0acbbacked No	12c	376$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.12	18	66.7%12 W · 6 L	+4.7wins	+0.26per pick	41cpaid	+123%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9990…4c06backed No	20c	376$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.95	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x713f…22ccbacked Yes	39c	375.04$148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$227.14	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+2.6wins	+0.17per pick	29cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7238…e52dbacked No	12c	319$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.28	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+2.7wins	+0.25per pick	30cpaid	+94.7%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	75c	299.09$223 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.07	482	36.3%175 W · 307 L	+8.4wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No	10c	293.61$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.25	208	41.8%87 W · 121 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1930…691cbacked Yes	60c	290.58$175 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115.08	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	+2.5wins	+0.09per pick	32cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5da6…ea8abacked No	10c	286.05$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.75	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58fe…a8c5backed No	12c	284$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.08	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a30…79cabacked No	20c	264$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.33	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e47…dbcabacked No	13c	261.14$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.7	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+1.5wins	+0.14per pick	32cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x22eb…ad17backed Yes	77c	260.82$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.82	69	55.1%38 W · 31 L	+5.8wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+34%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe43b…3497backed Yes	68c	253$172 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.96	25	48%12 W · 13 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a16…0c03backed No	20c	251$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.2	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2971…b901backed No	12c	248$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.76	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+3.7wins	+0.17per pick	38cpaid	+46.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x184f…a48fbacked No	12c	245$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.4	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	36cpaid	-63.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes	67c	241.89$162 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.34	266	41.7%111 W · 155 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes	60c	226$135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.63	62	29%18 W · 44 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked No	6c	222$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.58	90	1.1%1 W · 89 L	-4.3wins	-0.05per pick	6cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No	8c	219.28$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.36	201	3.5%7 W · 194 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes	57c	208.23$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.53	237	41.4%98 W · 139 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeaf1…68cabacked No	12c	208$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaeff…765bbacked Yes	80c	208$166 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.02	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.20per pick	80cpaid	+25.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed No	10c	206$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.36	111	4.5%5 W · 106 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No	14c	200$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.8	74	31.1%23 W · 51 L	-7.1wins	-0.10per pick	41cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No	11c	200$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.2	285	28.8%82 W · 203 L	-8.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xece1…a49ebacked No	9c	197.97$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.62	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce25…4e7dbacked No	25c	196$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	+1.6wins	+0.06per pick	43cpaid	+61.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x848d…76c1backed Yes	80c	196$157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.2	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x809f…a13bbacked Yes	80c	190$152 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.38	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.20per pick	80cpaid	+25.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cd6…c053backed Yes	80c	190$152 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.38	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.20per pick	80cpaid	+25.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6430…b064backed No	11c	184.44$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.92	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e46…e68dbacked No	12c	183$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.96	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5a7…4d86backed No	12c	182$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.84	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+3.1wins	+0.14per pick	41cpaid	+48.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x451a…a0c9backed No	31c	176$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.4	36	41.7%15 W · 21 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd33…8431backed No	21c	175.36$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.18	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed No	15c	173.9$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.08	102	44.1%45 W · 57 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54af…415ebacked No	12c	172$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.64	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x282e…3eaabacked Yes	68c	170$116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.4	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+1.8wins	+0.25per pick	32cpaid	+53.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed No	27c	169.35$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.11	178	21.3%38 W · 140 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2ff…b38fbacked No	12c	166$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.92	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f0f…98e8backed No	12c	159$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.08	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed69…7cc9backed No	11c	157.07$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.59	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffed…5079backed Yes	80c	156$124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.51	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.20per pick	80cpaid	+25.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ea1…6487backed No	18c	154$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.03	40	25%10 W · 30 L	-6.1wins	-0.15per pick	40cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa400…ec34backed No	12c	152$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.24	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes	77c	151.15$117 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.25	157	39.5%62 W · 95 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb97…b54dbacked No	21c	151$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.56	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	41cpaid	+50.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x64c9…6bdebacked No	12c	148$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.76	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	-3.8wins	-0.14per pick	44cpaid	-50.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4924…f404backed Yes	75c	147$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.75	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf278…2ee3backed No	20c	144$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.23	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.13per pick	37cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3214…f00ebacked No	12c	143$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.16	29	65.5%19 W · 10 L	+4.3wins	+0.15per pick	51cpaid	+26.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes	77c	143$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.89	237	51.9%123 W · 114 L	+16.9wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No	16c	141.69$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.8	672	32%215 W · 457 L	+14.4wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-30%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d93…7f30backed No	12c	141$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.92	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-3.2wins	-0.20per pick	38cpaid	-64.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5e9e…5f7fbacked No	69c	140.75$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.12	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x31a8…1f07backed No	12c	140$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca1e…53e3backed No	11c	139$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.04	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes	68c	139$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.48	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	-4.6wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-50.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xea91…ebf4backed No	10c	133.26$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.93	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa60a…79ddbacked Yes	80c	129$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.06	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.20per pick	80cpaid	+25.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Wagner Moura be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event