Movies · resolved market
Will Jeremy Allen White be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26d47b7182b80f24a41f485c57564a732df557ab3f9b5c491715dd57630f47fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x252b…b46cbacked No | 38c | 556.39$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.28 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 31c | 545.5$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.12 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbded…5ae9backed Yes | 62c | 485.49$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked No | 40c | 483.49$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.1 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.8wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 465.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 89 | 4.5%4 W · 85 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 70c | 405$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.05 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Yes | 32c | 309.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e4…ef6dbacked Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 56c | 245$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.65 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 51c | 239.66$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.91 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed No | 55c | 203$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.28 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 66c | 180$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc40a…1f50backed Yes | 11c | 178$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 43c | 176$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 66c | 172.68$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.11 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 34c | 170.68$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.65 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 68c | 137$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.94 | 131 | 35.1%46 W · 85 L | -14.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 18c | 131.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…5f7fbacked No | 44c | 126.01$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 65c | 123.46$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 157 | 39.5%62 W · 95 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed Yes | 66c | 113.43$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x211e…35ddbacked Yes | 68c | 111.54$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed Yes | 12c | 94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 28c | 81.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.76 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 71c | 69.59$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 45c | 57.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 68c | 57.31$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 22c | 53.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 46c | 44.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed Yes | 58c | 41.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed No | 42c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8755…b0a9backed Yes | 72c | 30.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…75e6backed No | 51c | 24.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jeremy Allen White be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Brad Pitt be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Brendan Fraser be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Colin Farrell be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Daniel Day-Lewis be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Denzel Washington be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Dwayne Johnson be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Ethan Hawke be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will George Clooney be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jesse Plemons be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Joaquin Phoenix be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Joel Edgerton be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Lee Byung-hun be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Leonardo DiCaprio be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Matthew McConaughey be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Michael B. Jordan be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Paul Mescal be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Timothée Chalamet be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Wagner Moura be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Willem Dafoe be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.