Movies · resolved market

Will Jesse Plemons be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07f9adec25f5be2312f0b83d105ead0eea6c2de4141be1a85ae095afbc7a44b9

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $50,977
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $51,127

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,977 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 190 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Movies
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x682f…fc69backed Yes	18c	1,374$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.32	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.14per pick	39cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed No	65c	1,306$854 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$452.17	42	50%21 W · 21 L	-3.2wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5383…88f0backed Yes	28c	1,246$349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$348.88	35	28.6%10 W · 25 L	-5.2wins	-0.15per pick	43cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x61a8…f658backed Yes	29c	1,164$339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$338.76	20	45%9 W · 11 L	+2.0wins	+0.10per pick	35cpaid	+16%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d34…7c14backed Yes	36c	1,151$414 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$414.35	92	38%35 W · 57 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes	28c	1,112$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311.18	299	26.4%79 W · 220 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc713…891fbacked Yes	22c	1,102$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.01	35	40%14 W · 21 L	-2.8wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x27db…a440backed Yes	22c	999.99$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b6c…5ab5backed No	68c	952.22$646 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$306.28	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.35per pick	65cpaid	+53.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdb8…f285backed No	72c	886$638 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$248.08	38	36.8%14 W · 24 L	-2.8wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-44%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xea90…0f8fbacked No	74c	866$641 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$224.91	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0bfa…3888backed No	70c	832$582 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$249.6	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x14d4…cc6fbacked No	78c	803$626 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$176.66	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd719…d8e5backed No	78c	766$597 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$168.52	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	29c	711.14$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.1	482	36.3%175 W · 307 L	+8.4wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12e2…85b7backed No	71c	671$476 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$194.59	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-2.2wins	-0.13per pick	42cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed No	79c	669.98$532 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137.58	131	50.4%66 W · 65 L	+4.2wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+18.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x425a…78cbbacked Yes	29c	636$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.44	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.11per pick	39cpaid	-61.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1e1…d9c1backed No	78c	632$493 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$139.04	15	73.3%11 W · 4 L	+4.3wins	+0.28per pick	45cpaid	+86.7%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf6c7…f199backed No	76c	575$437 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.26	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb890…a592backed No	66c	573$378 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$194.82	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c07…0cbcbacked Yes	34c	573$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.82	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-2.2wins	-0.12per pick	43cpaid	-51%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x82e4…fa57backed Yes	31c	563$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.53	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-10%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc886…696fbacked Yes	15c	555$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.25	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12e3…dbd4backed No	66c	555$366 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$188.7	8	87.5%7 W · 1 L	+2.1wins	+0.26per pick	62cpaid	+29.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7fae…6853backed No	71c	532$378 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$154.28	31	45.2%14 W · 17 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa18…7693backed No	71c	532$378 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$154.28	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+24.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17be…7a33backed No	70c	517$363 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$154.35	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-3.7wins	-0.20per pick	41cpaid	-68.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed No	68c	500$342 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$157.51	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-61.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ae4…d837backed Yes	18c	494$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.92	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes	27c	492$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.36	37	40.5%15 W · 22 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x64c9…6bdebacked Yes	22c	482$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.41	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	-3.8wins	-0.14per pick	44cpaid	-50.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfd41…3796backed No	66c	479$316 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$162.86	23	69.6%16 W · 7 L	+5.6wins	+0.24per pick	45cpaid	+107.7%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x4d17…1e5ebacked Yes	31c	429$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.99	32	56.3%18 W · 14 L	+3.7wins	+0.12per pick	45cpaid	+29.5%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe0b8…0ec1backed Yes	34c	409$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.06	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.18per pick	49cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca87…3701backed Yes	33c	374$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.08	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	+3.6wins	+0.23per pick	40cpaid	+118.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8624…b484backed Yes	27c	369$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.27	45	42.2%19 W · 26 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29b4…c17abacked Yes	22c	355$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.1	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+2.0wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+28.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5fa…f3f8backed Yes	19c	346$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.74	32	46.9%15 W · 17 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8ac7…dc0bbacked Yes	34c	343$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.62	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-2.0wins	-0.12per pick	41cpaid	-50.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b2f…c453backed Yes	29c	323$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.67	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e2…4c8bbacked No	69c	318$219 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.58	25	44%11 W · 14 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes	25c	316.16$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.16	129	23.3%30 W · 99 L	-7.3wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	27c	316.12$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.18	1,394	8%111 W · 1,283 L	-47.9wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d24…a2e9backed Yes	31c	303$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.93	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b79…360fbacked No	69c	303$209 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.93	14	71.4%10 W · 4 L	+2.7wins	+0.19per pick	52cpaid	+42.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf90a…2235backed No	66c	302.83$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.83	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	21c	299.61$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.46	365	38.1%139 W · 226 L	-19.8wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9d9…bacbbacked No	71c	294$209 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.26	30	56.7%17 W · 13 L	+4.5wins	+0.15per pick	42cpaid	+87.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes	31c	293.39$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.01	136	50%68 W · 68 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd40d…b2fabacked No	70c	282$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.6	39	46.2%18 W · 21 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0c0…c4c9backed Yes	24c	273$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.52	26	53.8%14 W · 12 L	+1.7wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes	23c	270.38$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.49	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	+65.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa355…a3a2backed No	72c	260$187 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.8	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88fa…2cf4backed Yes	22c	255$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.1	25	28%7 W · 18 L	-4.0wins	-0.16per pick	44cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf738…56bdbacked Yes	35c	250$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.5	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x86c5…4c23backed No	65c	250$163 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.5	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7f2…1a94backed Yes	21c	240$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+1.9wins	+0.14per pick	43cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked Yes	29c	233.65$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.78	131	30.5%40 W · 91 L	-7.2wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe4d9…2a4ebacked Yes	24c	230$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.2	20	50%10 W · 10 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b2…9ae2backed No	66c	225$149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.5	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2de2…feabbacked Yes	22c	212.06$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.59	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.09per pick	14cpaid	+79.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfb8…ec8dbacked Yes	19c	212$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.28	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	+1.6wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x31a8…1f07backed No	78c	209$163 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.98	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87c0…1a3abacked Yes	42c	204.76$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.42per pick	42cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe53d…8ab8backed Yes	22c	201$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.22	28	50%14 W · 14 L	+2.2wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5e0…4fb1backed Yes	34c	201$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.34	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	51cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes	32c	200$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	58	31%18 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4029…5255backed Yes	38c	193.12$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.04	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4516…ea0ebacked Yes	19c	192$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.48	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	41cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ead…6c75backed Yes	29c	188$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.52	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.11per pick	36cpaid	-44%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c04…b9b4backed Yes	29c	186$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.94	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-2.1wins	-0.23per pick	45cpaid	-48.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd286…d20ebacked Yes	18c	184$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.12	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.6wins	-0.23per pick	51cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ea6…32d9backed No	78c	181$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.82	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	-2.7wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b92…f4c6backed Yes	29c	178$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.62	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-4.2wins	-0.20per pick	44cpaid	-63.6%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes	33c	177.4$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.54	56	12.5%7 W · 49 L	-4.6wins	-0.08per pick	21cpaid	-76%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9e9c…6216backed No	67c	177.4$119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.54	54	44.4%24 W · 30 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked No	75c	173$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.25	246	34.6%85 W · 161 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3841…cd5cbacked Yes	21c	168.22$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x69ba…f15dbacked Yes	35c	168$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7086…f376backed Yes	29c	166$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.14	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes	38c	165.42$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.86	285	28.8%82 W · 203 L	-8.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d05…305bbacked Yes	16c	163$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.08	37	48.6%18 W · 19 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa0f5…b750backed Yes	16c	162$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.92	20	50%10 W · 10 L	+2.2wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e50…7a6bbacked No	62c	161.29$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.29	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b82…1712backed Yes	34c	146$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.64	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1db2…ebc2backed Yes	20c	144$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.8	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	41cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	26c	143.6$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.46	1,218	17.8%217 W · 1,001 L	-124.0wins	-0.10per pick	28cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb023…6d90backed No	75c	141$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.15	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-1.9wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03d0…d647backed Yes	30c	136.66$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.49	61	52.5%32 W · 29 L	+2.9wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2432…ae39backed Yes	23c	133.01$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a5a…779cbacked Yes	28c	133$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.24	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4fb…3e92backed Yes	40c	130.93$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.78	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No	65c	130.1$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.67	206	68.9%142 W · 64 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	70cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	23c	127.98$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.51	484	14%68 W · 416 L	-39.3wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x75f7…bd3dbacked Yes	36c	124$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.64	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x809a…f315backed Yes	12c	119$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.28	31	45.2%14 W · 17 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No	73c	117.5$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.28	266	41.7%111 W · 155 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe136…cacebacked No	80c	115$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+1.4wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8885…2b63backed Yes	37c	115$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.55	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Jesse Plemons be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event