Movies · resolved market
Will Timothée Chalamet be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3680f97b904bb06e4ebe3862238bc088814b0d2a6986dd381834bc8aad43658
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $413,556
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $405,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $413,556 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x454e…62b9backed No | 0c | 294,351$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.53 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ee…ffeabacked No | 1c | 10,680$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc242…9056backed No | 1c | 10,680$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 0c | 5,882$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 111 | 4.5%5 W · 106 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 3c | 4,836$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.59 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 4,308$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x211e…35ddbacked Yes | 79c | 4,116$3,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.74 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 23c | 3,344$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.12 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked No | 21c | 3,049$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.04 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.8wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 77c | 3,000$2,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +124.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6875…a145backed No | 1c | 2,832$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 14c | 2,051$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.32 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed No | 1c | 2,017$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 21c | 999.98$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.05 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked No | 3c | 957$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 25c | 796.73$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa23d…8eaebacked No | 2c | 772$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf04e…baabbacked No | 4c | 590.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 28c | 578.11$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.65 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 30c | 366.7$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.81 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed Yes | 77c | 298.7$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.7 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 77c | 295.58$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.58 | 157 | 39.5%62 W · 95 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d56…191cbacked Yes | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 43cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…1d12backed Yes | 78c | 250$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 19c | 248.44$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Yes | 74c | 246$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.04 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…5f7fbacked Yes | 78c | 229.71$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.24 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 6c | 206.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 29c | 140$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x486a…1a4fbacked Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 9c | 121.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 131 | 35.1%46 W · 85 L | -14.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 77c | 90.76$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8755…b0a9backed Yes | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2255…65d8backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0e…660dbacked Yes | 77c | 19.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9a…ed80backed Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Timothée Chalamet be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Brad Pitt be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Brendan Fraser be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Colin Farrell be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Daniel Day-Lewis be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Denzel Washington be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Dwayne Johnson be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Ethan Hawke be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will George Clooney be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jeremy Allen White be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jesse Plemons be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Joaquin Phoenix be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Joel Edgerton be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Lee Byung-hun be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Leonardo DiCaprio be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Matthew McConaughey be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Michael B. Jordan be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Paul Mescal be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Wagner Moura be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Willem Dafoe be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.