Movies · resolved market

Will Lee Byung-hun be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c25a1649760dbbd9a450791d2e00f65311437cc8f4807aa52dcedc81c3a9a07

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $43,593
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $41,708

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,593 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Movies
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes	0c	3,195$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.21	111	4.5%5 W · 106 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	5c	1,967$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.73	89	4.5%4 W · 85 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes	3c	1,165$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.53	246	34.6%85 W · 161 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc363…9fd8backed Yes	9c	1,117$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.21	35	22.9%8 W · 27 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9264…3734backed Yes	13c	963$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.19	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-53.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2145…1e5dbacked Yes	12c	889$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.68	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.12per pick	42cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb28…74f4backed Yes	12c	879$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.48	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.13per pick	35cpaid	-68.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes	8c	722$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.07	130	40%52 W · 78 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	717.34$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.62	1,394	8%111 W · 1,283 L	-47.9wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x546a…1abbbacked Yes	11c	616$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.76	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-63.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes	8c	549$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.92	194	40.2%78 W · 116 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2034…8daebacked Yes	10c	499.99$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	39	35.9%14 W · 25 L	+3.4wins	+0.09per pick	27cpaid	+24%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	8c	490.37$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.23	482	36.3%175 W · 307 L	+8.4wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes	9c	487.88$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.08	266	41.7%111 W · 155 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…cd55backed Yes	11c	479$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.69	30	56.7%17 W · 13 L	+4.1wins	+0.14per pick	43cpaid	+21%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8507…7f61backed Yes	12c	478$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.36	8	50%4 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes	14c	475$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.36	285	28.8%82 W · 203 L	-8.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b82…1712backed Yes	12c	454$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.48	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbec…8dccbacked Yes	11c	449$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.39	17	70.6%12 W · 5 L	+3.1wins	+0.18per pick	53cpaid	+42.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3024…0c79backed Yes	12c	435$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.2	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c12…d725backed Yes	12c	361$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.32	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked Yes	6c	359.54$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.35	131	30.5%40 W · 91 L	-7.2wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb25c…6d89backed Yes	12c	344$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.28	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xfda4…1058backed Yes	12c	344$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.28	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97bc…e149backed Yes	4c	285.51$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.99	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74e6…99e8backed Yes	10c	271.58$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.16	17	64.7%11 W · 6 L	+1.5wins	+0.09per pick	56cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x46ce…c842backed Yes	5c	260.19$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.83	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae37…5a8fbacked Yes	4c	255.71$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.48	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	6c	249.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	278	1.8%5 W · 273 L	-9.2wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79a1…2d87backed Yes	12c	248$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.76	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.14per pick	43cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes	7c	217$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.47	299	26.4%79 W · 220 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4b8c…26fdbacked Yes	12c	203$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.36	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2cc7…5536backed Yes	10c	201$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.27	40	30%12 W · 28 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	+59.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d6d…c063backed Yes	13c	200$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd622…defcbacked Yes	11c	189$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.79	43	48.8%21 W · 22 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	14c	179$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.52	484	14%68 W · 416 L	-39.3wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc57b…8fafbacked Yes	9c	155.9$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.71	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5243…a73cbacked Yes	11c	148$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.28	28	50%14 W · 14 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	9c	144.01$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.05	1,218	17.8%217 W · 1,001 L	-124.0wins	-0.10per pick	28cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x61a8…f658backed Yes	11c	143$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.73	20	45%9 W · 11 L	+2.0wins	+0.10per pick	35cpaid	+16%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes	14c	138.03$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.32	178	21.3%38 W · 140 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4516…ea0ebacked Yes	11c	134$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.74	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	41cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5a7…4d86backed Yes	11c	129$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.19	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+3.1wins	+0.14per pick	41cpaid	+48.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7b98…5cfabacked Yes	10c	111.01$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.47	67	29.9%20 W · 47 L	-5.7wins	-0.09per pick	38cpaid	-44%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes	14c	111$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.54	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-43.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7be…c354backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-41%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91be…2641backed Yes	11c	97$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.67	29	31%9 W · 20 L	-2.6wins	-0.09per pick	40cpaid	-38%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x941a…90c4backed Yes	11c	91$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.01	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Lee Byung-hun be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event