Movies · resolved market

Will Dwayne Johnson be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09b5e08fdb74b2b5d9b3907ff50fbfe444edf9b06928307fae0da151ee6cb294

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $53,185
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $50,533

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,185 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Movies
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc462…c00ebacked Yes	8c	3,584$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$294.92	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No	76c	1,536$1,171 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$365.55	482	36.3%175 W · 307 L	+8.4wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5f…d395backed Yes	14c	1,421$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.94	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	-6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0733…cd5abacked Yes	14c	1,189$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.46	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-1.7wins	-0.13per pick	44cpaid	-59.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4e2…4c8bbacked Yes	13c	1,188$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.44	25	44%11 W · 14 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes	26c	1,139$298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$297.75	140	15%21 W · 119 L	-6.2wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No	56c	1,089$612 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$476.21	129	23.3%30 W · 99 L	-7.3wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	4c	917.29$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.61	89	4.5%4 W · 85 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d37…bc04backed Yes	11c	907.85$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb86e…8cfdbacked Yes	45c	875.88$398 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$398.33	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-14%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xceae…1cedbacked Yes	36c	870$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.95	32	21.9%7 W · 25 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes	6c	810$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.01	48	27.1%13 W · 35 L	-2.3wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No	64c	698$447 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$250.53	237	51.9%123 W · 114 L	+16.9wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No	56c	649.02$362 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$287.27	130	40%52 W · 78 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xe7ed…ec87backed Yes	14c	635$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.9	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+1.2wins	+0.14per pick	42cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac69…d303backed Yes	8c	625$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	45c	533$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241.62	506	33.4%169 W · 337 L	-30.0wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4028…7de4backed Yes	17c	469.58$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4291…b6bdbacked Yes	20c	460.39$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e9e…5f7fbacked No	51c	446.99$227 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$219.57	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x188a…de60backed Yes	5c	365$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.62	34	11.8%4 W · 30 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b98…5cfabacked Yes	7c	360.95$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.96	67	29.9%20 W · 47 L	-5.7wins	-0.09per pick	38cpaid	-44%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf298…12f8backed Yes	14c	335$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.9	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	+2.0wins	+0.09per pick	43cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed No	68c	328.97$222 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.84	237	41.4%98 W · 139 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x22eb…ad17backed No	71c	325.47$230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.47	69	55.1%38 W · 31 L	+5.8wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+34%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No	78c	314$244 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.53	266	41.7%111 W · 155 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x562b…dc09backed Yes	29c	303.63$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.19	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	-3.2wins	-0.11per pick	39cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x707b…69f2backed Yes	30c	296.03$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.14	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.4wins	-0.17per pick	55cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed No	71c	283.86$201 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.91	157	39.5%62 W · 95 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed Yes	22c	277.82$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.14	102	44.1%45 W · 57 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c8a…e505backed Yes	52c	269.65$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x14d4…cc6fbacked Yes	14c	267$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.38	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb862…5aaebacked Yes	5c	266$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.3	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b72…cd8ebacked Yes	14c	259$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.26	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-2.2wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6bdf…d2f3backed Yes	38c	250$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e46…e68dbacked Yes	14c	244$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.16	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	11c	242.62$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.6	1,394	8%111 W · 1,283 L	-47.9wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x429e…63a4backed Yes	5c	236.83$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8996…9c76backed Yes	6c	232$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.92	30	56.7%17 W · 13 L	+3.0wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x10d8…9f12backed Yes	14c	230$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.2	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25b5…1fdabacked Yes	5c	223.38$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.71	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No	80c	222.5$178 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.72	672	32%215 W · 457 L	+14.4wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-30%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No	56c	200$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88	74	31.1%23 W · 51 L	-7.1wins	-0.10per pick	41cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	66	6.1%4 W · 62 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	69c	199.82$137 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.34	870	33.3%290 W · 580 L	-77.0wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x61a8…f658backed Yes	7c	198$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.86	20	45%9 W · 11 L	+2.0wins	+0.10per pick	35cpaid	+16%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf25d…8b1ebacked Yes	18c	181$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.58	37	45.9%17 W · 20 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes	11c	180.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.19	137	40.1%55 W · 82 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ea6…32d9backed Yes	18c	179$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.22	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	-2.7wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9660…84b2backed Yes	6c	178.11$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No	54c	152.17$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70	162	37.7%61 W · 101 L	+6.5wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x22c1…8cd6backed Yes	10c	151.68$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-3.7wins	-0.20per pick	48cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes	36c	150.54$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.41	80	30%24 W · 56 L	-9.2wins	-0.12per pick	42cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed No	54c	149.99$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69	25	44%11 W · 14 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8151…3421backed Yes	14c	149$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.86	30	63.3%19 W · 11 L	+4.8wins	+0.16per pick	47cpaid	+33.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xafa3…c3ddbacked Yes	13c	123$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.99	20	50%10 W · 10 L	+1.7wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1587…901abacked Yes	14c	120$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-24%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	10c	117$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.53	278	1.8%5 W · 273 L	-9.2wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	25c	115$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.7	1,218	17.8%217 W · 1,001 L	-124.0wins	-0.10per pick	28cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1930…691cbacked No	64c	109.38$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.38	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	+2.5wins	+0.09per pick	32cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf528…4441backed Yes	15c	106$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.9	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	-3.7wins	-0.13per pick	42cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x95bb…3e98backed Yes	19c	103.23$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	32%8 W · 17 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	+19%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d56…191cbacked Yes	50c	100.93$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-2.0wins	-0.29per pick	43cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x99d4…c2c6backed Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.9wins	-0.18per pick	36cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes	40c	100$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	62	29%18 W · 44 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed No	62c	100$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.38per pick	62cpaid	+61.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0a6…2ab9backed No	46c	100$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	198	36.4%72 W · 126 L	-11.1wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x94d8…37e6backed Yes	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	32	50%16 W · 16 L	+2.4wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbdf7…65d9backed No	47c	100$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	+1.2wins	+0.06per pick	41cpaid	-15%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6149…8a58backed Yes	36c	99.99$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	24	33.3%8 W · 16 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+35.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5903…f218backed Yes	50c	95$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.82	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.11per pick	47cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x97a5…c111backed Yes	31c	94.65$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	26	15.4%4 W · 22 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	23cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked Yes	11c	94$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.28	131	30.5%40 W · 91 L	-7.2wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes	33c	93.2$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.06	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	+65.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28db…3243backed Yes	32c	87.5$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No	54c	73.04$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.57	184	44%81 W · 103 L	+7.4wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38d6…e50fbacked Yes	14c	72$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes	22c	69.6$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.63	131	35.1%46 W · 85 L	-14.0wins	-0.11per pick	46cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed No	54c	54.35$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	41	36.6%15 W · 26 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac4…53c9backed Yes	46c	50$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-2.8wins	-0.14per pick	24cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf41…1587backed Yes	51c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86c2…41bebacked Yes	51c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5927…672bbacked No	76c	48$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.4	33	66.7%22 W · 11 L	+3.1wins	+0.09per pick	57cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec76…f9f1backed Yes	55c	46$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.3	24	50%12 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No	70c	38.72$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.72	365	38.1%139 W · 226 L	-19.8wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x245c…2486backed Yes	29c	35$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.15	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-1.8wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No	43c	34.95$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.92	111	29.7%33 W · 78 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	40c	30$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	62	22.6%14 W · 48 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed Yes	47c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.1	166	14.5%24 W · 142 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed No	64c	29.8$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.71	51	45.1%23 W · 28 L	-4.3wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No	73c	21$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.67	194	40.2%78 W · 116 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed No	53c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.4	71	21.1%15 W · 56 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Dwayne Johnson be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event