Movies · resolved market

Will Michael B. Jordan be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56b6ea1e2601b232df67cb8adf6400e1c017a0e2f5896c696b76a5a2a94d18fd

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $141,719
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $143,184

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,719 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Movies
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xde04…fa37backed No	7c	6,033$413 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$412.56	299	26.4%79 W · 220 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No	4c	2,705$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.79	482	36.3%175 W · 307 L	+8.4wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27db…a440backed Yes	67c	1,718$1,152 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$565.7	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cc7…5536backed No	6c	1,483$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.55	40	30%12 W · 28 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	+59.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No	3c	1,315$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.45	365	38.1%139 W · 226 L	-19.8wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fbd…1598backed No	13c	1,304$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.52	20	45%9 W · 11 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+33.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No	6c	1,240$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.55	194	40.2%78 W · 116 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95cc…f215backed No	10c	1,132$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.2	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No	18c	1,067$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.15	129	23.3%30 W · 99 L	-7.3wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x91af…95c8backed No	14c	1,040$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.6	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+2.3wins	+0.19per pick	39cpaid	+48.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1ecb…b5e3backed No	14c	1,021$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.94	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2111…667fbacked No	14c	1,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.12per pick	50cpaid	+41.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x02f7…395ebacked No	19c	964$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.16	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-2.1wins	-0.19per pick	37cpaid	-70.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6546…c454backed No	17c	877$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.09	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc462…c00ebacked No	6c	871.69$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18fa…3730backed No	10c	845$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.5	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+1.4wins	+0.14per pick	36cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6f5…d7aabacked No	14c	812$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.68	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+3.5wins	+0.27per pick	35cpaid	+74.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x245c…75e7backed No	14c	810$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.4	25	24%6 W · 19 L	-5.3wins	-0.21per pick	45cpaid	-61.9%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x671a…ee5abacked No	14c	808$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.12	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8996…9c76backed No	13c	791$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.83	30	56.7%17 W · 13 L	+3.0wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa667…84febacked No	27c	771.37$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.04	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8bb…e885backed No	14c	754$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.56	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdce0…7260backed No	9c	720$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.8	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	+2.5wins	+0.10per pick	36cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5372…5f61backed No	14c	688$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.32	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+2.9wins	+0.24per pick	42cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x71d2…e109backed No	9c	677$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.93	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	+3.0wins	+0.09per pick	44cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x090a…cd55backed No	9c	633$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.97	30	56.7%17 W · 13 L	+4.1wins	+0.14per pick	43cpaid	+21%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x78b7…9581backed No	14c	630$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88fa…2cf4backed No	9c	621$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.89	25	28%7 W · 18 L	-4.0wins	-0.16per pick	44cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb25c…6d89backed No	14c	619$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.78	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8f3e…f9d4backed No	14c	618$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.52	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	40cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf40b…7181backed No	14c	615$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.1	34	32.4%11 W · 23 L	-3.2wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee4e…aa5abacked No	9c	599$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.91	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3df6…0f0fbacked No	15c	595$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.25	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb86e…8cfdbacked Yes	73c	593.95$433 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$161.21	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-14%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5214…95c9backed No	13c	592$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.96	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89df…f8d0backed No	30c	559.06$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167	22	50%11 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x322a…3274backed No	9c	549$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.41	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+3.4wins	+0.16per pick	39cpaid	+43.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xae18…1132backed No	12c	535$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.83	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed No	31c	499.99$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.59	178	21.3%38 W · 140 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6558…e485backed No	13c	498$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.42	34	32.4%11 W · 23 L	-3.2wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1bf…a751backed No	13c	494$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.22	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb8…f285backed No	14c	486$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.04	38	36.8%14 W · 24 L	-2.8wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-44%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a16…0c03backed No	14c	481$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.34	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03b2…567cbacked No	14c	481$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.34	30	56.7%17 W · 13 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1b9…5f57backed No	9c	476$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.84	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	33cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes	77c	458$353 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.25	246	34.6%85 W · 161 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1294…9151backed No	14c	437$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.18	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	31cpaid	-52.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x23e9…109fbacked No	33c	436.35$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	+31.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab88…e0a4backed No	14c	421$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.94	39	38.5%15 W · 24 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6159…7501backed No	14c	417$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.38	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	-1.8wins	-0.08per pick	36cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9081…0b1ebacked No	9c	402$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.18	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x188a…de60backed No	7c	400$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	34	11.8%4 W · 30 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed No	5c	400$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.3	116	4.3%5 W · 111 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No	4c	400$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	285	28.8%82 W · 203 L	-8.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x708a…68b9backed Yes	58c	394$229 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$165.35	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f0…669dbacked No	10c	393$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.3	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No	7c	391$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.68	278	1.8%5 W · 273 L	-9.2wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c07…0cbcbacked No	9c	391$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.19	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-2.2wins	-0.12per pick	43cpaid	-51%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf51b…bf74backed Yes	65c	385$251 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$134.45	27	25.9%7 W · 20 L	-3.3wins	-0.12per pick	38cpaid	-38%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed No	11c	377$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.01	102	44.1%45 W · 57 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No	6c	363.89$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.88	208	41.8%87 W · 121 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x672b…68d2backed No	14c	339$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.46	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes	55c	329$182 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$146.99	237	51.9%123 W · 114 L	+16.9wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6587…4f63backed No	14c	328$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.92	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+2.5wins	+0.11per pick	48cpaid	+19.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed No	8c	322.48$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	157	39.5%62 W · 95 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2934…9a60backed No	41c	320$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.08	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+24.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked No	6c	317.93$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.32	71	35.2%25 W · 46 L	+4.7wins	+0.07per pick	29cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe36c…a6f0backed No	9c	317$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.53	25	40%10 W · 15 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5784…4018backed No	10c	313$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.36	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x846d…4ab2backed No	14c	312$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.68	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd44…f151backed No	8c	311.51$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	78	39.7%31 W · 47 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bfa…3888backed No	26c	308$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.5	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf955…bb33backed No	9c	303$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.27	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	-2.6wins	-0.11per pick	37cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	27c	301.33$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.3	1,394	8%111 W · 1,283 L	-47.9wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No	29c	300$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87	506	33.4%169 W · 337 L	-30.0wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked No	6c	299.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.1	90	1.1%1 W · 89 L	-4.3wins	-0.05per pick	6cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No	7c	296.3$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.26	220	30.5%67 W · 153 L	-13.6wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xce25…4e7dbacked No	37c	296$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.52	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	+1.6wins	+0.06per pick	43cpaid	+61.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe257…1b2fbacked No	9c	294.2$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.88	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa151…13b4backed No	14c	292$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.88	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+1.0wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb023…6d90backed No	9c	288$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.92	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-1.9wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff5d…4e58backed No	10c	285$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.5	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	+2.3wins	+0.12per pick	35cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xea25…d3aabacked No	9c	282$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.38	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+2.0wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+12%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0298…eadcbacked No	17c	280$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.27	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aca…cad6backed No	33c	273$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.09	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee9e…efb7backed Yes	66c	265$175 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.1	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	-3.0wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6875…a145backed No	7c	262.75$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ca7…4050backed No	38c	250$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-1.8wins	-0.11per pick	43cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fa5…8f79backed No	8c	246.05$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	74	50%37 W · 37 L	+4.8wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5bcb…f59bbacked No	13c	246$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.98	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5fa…f3f8backed No	31c	243$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.33	32	46.9%15 W · 17 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No	7c	242.38$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.97	204	2.9%6 W · 198 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x533d…e5ecbacked No	14c	238$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.32	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6512…87e5backed No	5c	224.7$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.11	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x385f…3c30backed No	9c	218$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.62	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-2.3wins	-0.20per pick	36cpaid	-77.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6951…cb02backed No	9c	212$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.08	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3359…2273backed Yes	62c	206$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.28	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No	6c	193.04$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.72	170	10%17 W · 153 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x354c…b301backed No	14c	191$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.74	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48f5…9dd3backed No	44c	185$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.98	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Michael B. Jordan be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event