Movies · resolved market

Will George Clooney be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26bae6cabb8969cb998996a797ead8c295e3eb643332cfba784d20063760ffc9

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $17,248
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $14,037

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,248 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Movies
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2cc7…5536backed Yes	2c	680$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.67	40	30%12 W · 28 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	+59.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No	79c	511.13$403 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.34	129	23.3%30 W · 99 L	-7.3wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes	11c	418.82$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.46	299	26.4%79 W · 220 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes	22c	330.27$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.66	178	21.3%38 W · 140 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff92…d07cbacked Yes	9c	292$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.88	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x700b…aa3cbacked No	68c	250$170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.16per pick	56cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93c0…b919backed Yes	21c	248$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.08	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.11per pick	52cpaid	-7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82a3…88d0backed Yes	13c	242$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.98	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4924…f404backed Yes	36c	217$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.12	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes	23c	213$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.46	140	15%21 W · 119 L	-6.2wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5aca…cad6backed Yes	16c	208$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.28	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1c55…8adebacked Yes	16c	195$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.2	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bef…1e38backed Yes	16c	192$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.72	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x993c…eae0backed Yes	9c	179$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.11	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c2d…ddd6backed No	79c	177$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.17	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f66…ad61backed Yes	21c	170$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.7	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+1.9wins	+0.14per pick	51cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd96e…1ea6backed Yes	9c	166$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.94	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.5wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes	11c	161.19$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.41	266	41.7%111 W · 155 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	23c	153.5$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.46	1,394	8%111 W · 1,283 L	-47.9wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5885…6562backed No	64c	151$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.36	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4406…5eafbacked Yes	11c	151$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.61	18	66.7%12 W · 6 L	+3.2wins	+0.18per pick	49cpaid	+31.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a6e…88adbacked No	79c	138$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.98	22	68.2%15 W · 7 L	+3.7wins	+0.17per pick	51cpaid	+46.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes	22c	133$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.82	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-43.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x460d…6232backed Yes	32c	130$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.6	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-1.9wins	-0.11per pick	47cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4346…2241backed No	79c	122$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.62	32	50%16 W · 16 L	+2.3wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x76f8…5145backed Yes	17c	119$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.23	37	43.2%16 W · 21 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No	77c	116$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.98	131	35.1%46 W · 85 L	-14.0wins	-0.11per pick	46cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes	27c	114.2$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.84	80	30%24 W · 56 L	-9.2wins	-0.12per pick	42cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes	12c	105$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.36	137	40.1%55 W · 82 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No	79c	100$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21	162	37.7%61 W · 101 L	+6.5wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9228…e41abacked No	80c	100$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	-1.8wins	-0.07per pick	35cpaid	-53.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x94d8…37e6backed Yes	19c	98$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.62	32	50%16 W · 16 L	+2.4wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	36c	97$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.09	1,218	17.8%217 W · 1,001 L	-124.0wins	-0.10per pick	28cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed Yes	21c	95.45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.29	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.11per pick	41cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc9a…cc24backed Yes	21c	95$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.95	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8624…b484backed Yes	32c	92$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.44	45	42.2%19 W · 26 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d17…1e5ebacked Yes	16c	92$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.72	32	56.3%18 W · 14 L	+3.7wins	+0.12per pick	45cpaid	+29.5%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x04da…dc10backed Yes	17c	75$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.75	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-2.9wins	-0.17per pick	40cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6ac4…53c9backed Yes	24c	70$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.55	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-2.8wins	-0.14per pick	24cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d05…305bbacked No	64c	66$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.76	37	48.6%18 W · 19 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1587…901abacked Yes	26c	66$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.94	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-24%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No	71c	60$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.15	184	44%81 W · 103 L	+7.4wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	79c	49.2$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.33	870	33.3%290 W · 580 L	-77.0wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9dc5…d5f6backed No	79c	27$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.67	26	53.8%14 W · 12 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed No	78c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.4	25	44%11 W · 14 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will George Clooney be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event