Movies · resolved market
Will Ethan Hawke be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82d6d051dc5d6f7cb16b72ac78cf9e5751616c1bdfabaf1eeb4406e37017406e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,181
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 29c | 1,059$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.75 | 71 | 25.4%18 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c62…70bbbacked No | 27c | 710$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed No | 45c | 584.7$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.61 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 30c | 459.68$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.97 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d64…8e5ebacked Yes | 76c | 444.29$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x374f…5087backed Yes | 73c | 400$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea72…16a2backed No | 31c | 375$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa749…6a65backed Yes | 76c | 363.16$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.16 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 74c | 310.46$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.88 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c6…5791backed Yes | 73c | 310$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…5016backed No | 24c | 310$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3737…50efbacked No | 19c | 294$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a2…84f1backed No | 29c | 265$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.85 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 70c | 264.04$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.21 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -76%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 71c | 255$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.11 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 43c | 250$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 17c | 227.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 131 | 30.5%40 W · 91 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d6d…c063backed Yes | 68c | 223.56$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…de60backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed No | 29c | 190.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c70…e9f9backed Yes | 69c | 189$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…7051backed Yes | 69c | 186$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 24c | 183.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 24c | 161.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed Yes | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 19c | 147$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…c1a2backed No | 19c | 143$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x871e…6566backed Yes | 74c | 140$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d55…7b25backed No | 15c | 139$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 68c | 139$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.89 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a98…7c69backed No | 28c | 135.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa67…4585backed Yes | 73c | 120$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…ea1dbacked Yes | 74c | 118$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed No | 33c | 109.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f52…3c07backed No | 18c | 109$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c92…4744backed Yes | 74c | 107$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x808c…00c8backed No | 19c | 105$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaf…eff6backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 157 | 39.5%62 W · 95 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa5…8f79backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d36…06edbacked Yes | 74c | 89$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 71c | 88$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 24c | 76.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2b…c6b7backed No | 18c | 76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9b…1c56backed Yes | 74c | 74$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 78c | 72.52$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd929…65cbbacked No | 15c | 72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d75…78b9backed Yes | 74c | 70.44$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +5.9wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e4…ef6dbacked Yes | 73c | 67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 27c | 62.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 37c | 59.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2854…3dabbacked No | 18c | 59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7be…c354backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f7…e73bbacked No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…6622backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 24c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…8fc5backed Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Yes | 73c | 36.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…cdfdbacked Yes | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0129…b111backed Yes | 76c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdae4…1ff9backed Yes | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7a…da74backed Yes | 75c | 30.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4a…b608backed Yes | 55c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 68c | 22.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Yes | 72c | 19.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethan Hawke be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Brad Pitt be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Brendan Fraser be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Colin Farrell be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Daniel Day-Lewis be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Denzel Washington be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Dwayne Johnson be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will George Clooney be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jeremy Allen White be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jesse Plemons be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Joaquin Phoenix be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Joel Edgerton be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Lee Byung-hun be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Leonardo DiCaprio be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Matthew McConaughey be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Michael B. Jordan be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Paul Mescal be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Timothée Chalamet be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Wagner Moura be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Willem Dafoe be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.