TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x24e4…6622

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
119
Categories scored
24
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: Europa Conference League, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Europa Conference League at 55 out of 100; worst Premier League at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT3132.3%10 W · 21 L-5.0wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-41.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
Premier League — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will Wrexham AFC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+109.6%+$52.3
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-05?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$183Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+63.9%+$117
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$138
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+69.5%+$82
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+104.1%+$51
Sunderland AFC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+44.9%+$31
Sunderland AFC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$56
Crystal Palace FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$70
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$58
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$64
Will Barnsley FC win on 2026-01-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$18.5
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$66
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$41
Will West Ham United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$62
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$55
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$21
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2025-12-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+33.3%+$5.5
Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+112.8%+$44.52
Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+35.1%+$26
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2025-12-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$46.8
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$39
Will Brentford FC win on 2025-12-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+150%+$60
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST1566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+22.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$397Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$397.36
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$306Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+46.9%+$143.6
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$235Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+75.1%+$176.29
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+26.9%+$23.44
Will xAI have the #2 AI model at the end of January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+33.3%+$25
Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+43.9%+$38.31
Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+127.3%+$56
Will xAI have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$45
Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$97.16
Will the assassination of Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched news on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+56.3%+$25.42
Will Sydney Sweeney be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$29
Will Mikey Madison be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+250.9%+$71.5
Will Jimmy Kimmel rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$22.4
Will xAI’s Grok 4 lose the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+138.1%+$34.8
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+34.1%+$85.15
All 15 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 28, 2026, EDT1450%7 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$166.4
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 0 Real Madrid CF?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.57
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 0 Real Madrid CF?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.93
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 1 Real Madrid CF?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.16
Will Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.25
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$170Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+150%+$254.5
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+117.4%+$54
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$65
Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+98.7%+$44.7
Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$30.5
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-10-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$16
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-10-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$10.2
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-10-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$16
All 14 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+64.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+330.4%+$405.04
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$101.89
Will FC Porto win on 2026-03-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$170.8
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-02-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+100%+$100
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-02-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+88.8%+$70.55
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-11-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$45
Will FC Porto win on 2025-11-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$59
Will Go Ahead Eagles win on 2025-10-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+85.5%+$122.21
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-10-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$158
All 9 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-44.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-43.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-31.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+72.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Feb 7, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+100.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Serie A — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-02-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+31.6%+$48
Will AC Milan win on 2026-02-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+170.3%+$63
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Dec 29, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Angola vs. Egypt end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+31.6%+$24
Will Nigeria win on 2025-12-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+38.9%+$28
All 2 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+50.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-30%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Seahawks vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$99
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$410Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+40%+$163.98
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$306Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+81.4%+$248.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-01-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+54.5%+$33.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+38.9%+$56
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Oct 22, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Inflation" during earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$4.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$12.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Nov 19, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$538Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$538.16
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 322: Edwards vs. Prates (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Edwards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winnerbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$26.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$152.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.