AI · resolved market
Will xAI have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb9ce17fb25341be537dec48f1f31ff392e1cb71840b47c9a9af3df45343dc98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 4c | 6,795$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.54 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 27c | 4,189$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.55 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…23c1backed Yes | 25c | 3,519$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.37 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 50c | 1,815$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.11 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 52c | 1,589$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.16 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 47c | 1,172$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.17 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 71c | 1,071$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.73 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…3c4dbacked Yes | 48c | 700$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 73c | 477.04$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.68 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 61c | 475.49$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.62 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ca…3b87backed Yes | 56c | 357.84$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 44c | 327$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.79 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…72f6backed No | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…42fcbacked Yes | 30c | 275$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x521b…db60backed No | 38c | 260.82$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.63 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed No | 75c | 257.14$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.28 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 69c | 227.46$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.21 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…dfbebacked Yes | 23c | 211.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 12c | 209.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…fce5backed Yes | 20c | 148.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 147.56$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.88 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 49c | 142.09$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.04 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 128$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.44 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 55c | 122.96$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.33 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…c03abacked Yes | 45c | 122.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…6622backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x176f…0fa3backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe71a…d65cbacked Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 74c | 97.62$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 76.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b88fbacked Yes | 25c | 65.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Yes | 20c | 62.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +5.4wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 26c | 54.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +19.9wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…0df8backed Yes | 77c | 51.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 59c | 50.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 63c | 50.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 45c | 43.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9c…56fabacked Yes | 69c | 40.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 46cpaid | +134.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 38c | 40.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 43c | 34.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7759…0487backed No | 77c | 33.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 66c | 30.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01d8…375bbacked Yes | 52c | 30.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 46c | 23.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -10.8wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b84…5061backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will xAI have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?this page
- Will Alibaba have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?Yes won
- Will Moonshot have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will OpenAI have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Z.ai have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.