AI · resolved market
Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e948c6d5859adc6edd8a35c79fb2f11f80a38953390bb70491398e87949f94f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,490
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 4c | 3,213$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.51 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 51c | 2,838$1,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,391.91 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…23c1backed Yes | 53c | 1,633$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.62 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…5f53backed Yes | 30c | 1,524$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,063.9 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4144…b82abacked Yes | 77c | 1,150$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 71c | 1,065$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.42 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc45…6805backed Yes | 24c | 1,001$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.8 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 28c | 957.68$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.7 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 22c | 858.46$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.32 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 73c | 790.22$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.16 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 34c | 657.06$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.69 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c04…ac99backed Yes | 24c | 644.71$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.27 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 37c | 601.51$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.14 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…3c4dbacked Yes | 56c | 418.71$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.37 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…281abacked Yes | 77c | 275.6$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.39 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1956…8010backed No | 55c | 270$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…abc8backed Yes | 45c | 270$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f81…e93fbacked Yes | 74c | 268.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.71 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 75cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed Yes | 74c | 268.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.66 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 66cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 13c | 207.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.35 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…4a82backed No | 12c | 195.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 31c | 176.73$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.25 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 15c | 165.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1757…bd49backed No | 30c | 160$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d8…841fbacked Yes | 77c | 150.34$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb8…b577backed Yes | 37c | 125.51$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed Yes | 75c | 125.22$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 10c | 120.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 19c | 119.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 72c | 115.98$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 27c | 104.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +19.9wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…c03abacked Yes | 31c | 101.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.96 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…0cdfbacked Yes | 30c | 101.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.08 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c79…c259backed Yes | 12c | 92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.96 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 39c | 90.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 29c | 82.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.68 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 24c | 73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.25 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked Yes | 74c | 68.8$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 25c | 64.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.35 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 24c | 60.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 56c | 58.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 27c | 40.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde5c…2358backed Yes | 77c | 35.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 61c | 30.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…a77bbacked No | 55c | 25.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa891…de35backed Yes | 78c | 25.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x176f…0fa3backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdde7…89d4backed Yes | 78c | 18.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…2640backed Yes | 79c | 17.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?this page
- Will Alibaba have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Moonshot have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will OpenAI have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Z.ai have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will xAI have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.