TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

IPO · resolved market

Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$417,327
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$432,643

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $417,327 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 433 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in IPO
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0965…ac46backed No0c39,311$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.1120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0490…c81fbacked No54c22,581$12,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,147.96425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-57.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ede…ea02backed Yes72c16,574$11,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,686.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b54…2adabacked Yes43c15,950$6,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,044.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+131%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80b8…55cebacked Yes45c9,999$4,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,544.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+124.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x058e…e0a8backed Yes18c6,948$1,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,665.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+441.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5078…99b1backed Yes32c6,884$2,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,712.613100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+119%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No1c6,750$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick2cpaid+548.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes30c6,166$1,822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,343.671723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-48.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No9c5,577$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.7230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1682…26cabacked No3c4,061$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.6120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7879…822abacked Yes77c3,962$3,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$913.58683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick58cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d5b…5d41backed No15c3,379$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.83714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-59.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No2c3,147$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.93640%0 W · 64 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8996…9c76backed No67c3,084$2,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,078.840%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xadbd…93f9backed No55c2,953$1,634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,634.47333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed No59c2,842$1,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,685.75425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-64.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes39c2,514$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,539.022626.9%7 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-47%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfeee…0118backed Yes44c2,476$1,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,393.92250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5d6…5176backed No13c2,368$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes77c2,354$1,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.683100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e9a…f3bbbacked No19c2,330$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.27742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bc6…6043backed Yes17c2,271$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,879.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+480.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a10…e7d3backed Yes33c2,138$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,434.582100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+156.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No3c2,106$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.451274.7%6 W · 121 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-83.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes35c1,802$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,169.06862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick38cpaid+61.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x18fa…3730backed Yes23c1,792$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,377.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+332.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ae0…4590backed Yes13c1,688$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,468.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+284.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53b7…4146backed Yes49c1,627$797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.77366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+24.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x636a…09aabacked Yes13c1,611$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,401.57560%3 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.33per pick27cpaid+198.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes12c1,544$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,357.534714.9%7 W · 40 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-42.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb862…5aaebacked Yes50c1,529$763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.87450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd30c…02c8backed Yes33c1,515$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,008.53333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes30c1,514$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,059.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+53.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No20c1,499$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.141338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-46.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41ab…6473backed Yes64c1,394$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x151a…0ecebacked Yes80c1,357$1,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.15250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7eae…3562backed No58c1,327$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.12560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+32.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d6…bca9backed Yes52c1,293$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.64333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f46…01b1backed Yes12c1,277$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,123.76475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+189.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf58…259dbacked Yes46c1,272$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+119%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bef…1e38backed Yes12c1,260$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,103.19425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid+100.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb065…adcebacked Yes75c1,204$905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.842100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f2…1762backed No32c1,203$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.5230%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4883…ce56backed Yes13c1,198$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,042.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+669.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bf7…2a85backed Yes58c1,196$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fb6…5ea0backed No48c1,190$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x64c2…c527backed Yes27c1,182$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.36560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes42c1,142$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.36475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+51.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe838…92fbbacked Yes51c1,124$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x656c…af94backed No79c1,116$882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881.64250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd91d…91fdbacked No51c1,059$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.09333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9d2…fb68backed No1c1,056$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce25…4e7dbacked No79c1,055$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$828.82250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No5c1,038$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.83812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick31cpaid-82.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1db2…ebc2backed No58c1,010$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.8250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7d4…5735backed Yes13c995$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+669.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x605c…83dcbacked Yes13c993$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863.91366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick31cpaid+224.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No7c983.99$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.454112.2%5 W · 36 L-4.9wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-81.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xde62…64f6backed No69c967$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae4a…48b1backed Yes12c958.52$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+740.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6163…58ccbacked Yes13c950$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$826.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+469.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes17c949.01$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$786.442626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-40.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6813…39e6backed Yes39c940$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae18…1132backed No76c925$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.77250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb3e…777fbacked Yes14c920.27$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$793.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+625.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdce0…7260backed Yes13c910$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.82366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+215.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0cb…ab6abacked No71c878$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.38425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-56.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0257…6beabacked Yes49c861$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.112100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5516…2263backed Yes49c856$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd242…e84dbacked Yes26c844.4$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.86944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16a0…72f1backed No71c843$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.5330%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe8d5…1caebacked Yes34c841$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.93560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+27%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No22c840$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.92846.4%13 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-24%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No58c832.1$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.191323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.9wins-0.30per pick53cpaid-66.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x86c5…4c23backed Yes13c823$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.012100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+375.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes73c820.51$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.852100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87d6…9357backed No69c819$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.1130%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcba0…97bfbacked Yes37c816.5$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+173.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes13c813$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.84475%3 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.46per pick29cpaid+262.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No55c799.05$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.213250%16 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6eaf…ee69backed Yes13c782.33$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.81366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+193.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8745…4805backed No49c771$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.79475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+51.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x506a…1b43backed No60c770$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No20c755.21$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.934829.2%14 W · 34 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6317…e864backed Yes13c746$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.023100%3 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+358.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed No17c745.32$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.56825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No23c733$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.393847.4%18 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1b7…d913backed Yes49c732$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick34cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x203f…f7a5backed No49c730$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd622…defcbacked Yes13c729$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.23366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick29cpaid+364.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3bc…43e9backed Yes49c718$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6eac…92cabacked No61c706$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.66425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa04f…15babacked Yes33c700$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick28cpaid+86.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x961a…73acbacked Yes12c697.94$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.19742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+57.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0298…eadcbacked Yes21c685$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d04…131dbacked Yes49c681$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x78ba…f02dbacked Yes33c680$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.62100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+142.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No8c677.2$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.91841.2%1 W · 83 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick8cpaid-98.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd5fa…f3f8backed No75c677$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.83333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-43.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.