IPO · resolved market
Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85b7ad683d84915d10fab8e8313764a2918d6f33a40c965030ff829cd9d8dbd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $349,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $470,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $349,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 2c | 13,391$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326b…33ebbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…648abacked Yes | 0c | 8,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa6…0a65backed Yes | 0c | 5,031$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,749$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.31 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…cd10backed Yes | 1c | 3,135$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 2,377$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x845e…d22bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,139$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed Yes | 4c | 2,081$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65fc…22c3backed Yes | 2c | 1,721$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x157b…0bc9backed Yes | 2c | 1,707$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…915fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,646$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d48…b7e9backed Yes | 2c | 1,642$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x321b…caffbacked Yes | 2c | 1,586$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x672a…04e8backed Yes | 1c | 1,556$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,554$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ce…bf7ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,319$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 3c | 1,196$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae5…45e3backed Yes | 3c | 1,131$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 27cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94db…2639backed Yes | 3c | 1,105$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9f…c9c6backed Yes | 1c | 1,033$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24aa…7e0abacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -62%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3560…11f0backed Yes | 4c | 966.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 2c | 964.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -47%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d6…58f0backed Yes | 2c | 869.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a15…7036backed Yes | 3c | 833.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 825.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed Yes | 1c | 823.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8871…059fbacked Yes | 2c | 805.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 792.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1332…d768backed Yes | 2c | 711.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 635.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2145…1e5dbacked Yes | 7c | 633$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…1e3abacked Yes | 3c | 598.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 5c | 573.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e8…fdd3backed Yes | 7c | 500$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b74…33f9backed Yes | 4c | 482.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 3c | 429.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7750…324dbacked Yes | 4c | 420.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…46cebacked Yes | 7c | 358$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379c…a2a9backed Yes | 4c | 351$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…5e7bbacked Yes | 7c | 303$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…e9bfbacked Yes | 4c | 264.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 26c | 250.56$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe79a…f29cbacked Yes | 9c | 229.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a2…e9c7backed Yes | 11c | 216.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…1c04backed Yes | 7c | 211$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 8c | 200.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 92 | 15.2%14 W · 78 L | -16.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed Yes | 6c | 169.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6359…b453backed Yes | 15c | 129.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 69c | 89.46$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?this page
- Will Bank of America or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?No won
- Will Barclays or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?No won
- Will Citigroup or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?No won
- Will Deutsche Bank or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?No won
- Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?Yes won
- Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?No won
- Will UBS or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?No won
- Will Wells Fargo or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.